WHEN the 14th general election will be held depends on whether Barisan Nasional believes a proposed redelineation will help it to regain a super majority that it lost in the last two polls, analysts said.

Up to 128 of the 222 Parliamentary seats will be redrawn in the redelineation, which will need to be passed by Parliament.

Critics claim that the new boundaries will give BN the advantage in GE14, particularly in Selangor, the country’s richest state ruled by the federal opposition since 2008.

Studies have shown that the redelineation, along with the disunited opposition, will help Prime Minister Najib Razak regain the two-thirds parliamentary majority of 148 seats that the BN once enjoyed.

But analysts such as Dr Wong Chin Huat, of Penang Institute, argue that the redelineation, which creates more Malay- and Chinese-majority seats, does not automatically benefit the BN.

Observers say there are two “windows” in which BN can pass the redelineation in Parliament, dissolve the federal legislature and set a date for GE14.  

It highly likely that BN will want to hold the election before the start of Ramadan on May 15 so it is more convenient for its members to campaign.

Parliament automatically dissolves on June 24 but the general election must be held before August.

Many expect Najib will dissolve Parliament after the March 5 Parliament sitting ending April 5. This is so he can get the proposed redelineation passed in Parliament for the King’s consent by mid-April to call for polls before May 15.    

March or May 

In one of two likely scenarios, Najib dissolves Parliament soon after the Chinese New Year celebrations, which starts on February 16. This will allow him to hold the elections in March.

Unless he calls for a special one-day Parliament sitting to get the delineation passed, the elections will be held on the current electoral boundaries.

Najib does not have to abide by the recent notice from Parliament that the first sitting of the sixth session will be held on March 5, said Amanah election director Dr Hatta Ramli.

“He can still call a special sitting before March 5. He can also dissolve Parliament before or even during the sitting itself,” Dr Hatta told The Malaysian Insight.

In a second scenario, the prime minister goes through with the March 5 to April 5 sitting and Parliament passes the redelineation. Parliament is dissolved in mid-April and the elections are called in early May.

The advantage in option one, said Wong of Penang Institute, is that it will lower the Chinese Malaysian voter turnout – most of whom support the opposition, Pakatan Harapan (PH).  

“If Najib is really confident of his chances and if he feels that Selangor is delaying the redelineation process, he can dissolve Parliament soon after Chinese New Year,” said Wong of the Penang Institute. 

“Some Chinese who are overseas will not be back in time to vote, so the turnout will be lower. Historically, a low turnout has always benefitted the BN.” 

Ooi Heng, of think tank KPRU, said if Najib chooses to go with option one, it will indicate that he does not think the redelineation will help BN win.

This is possible if PH, which has named the iconic Dr Mahathir Mohamad its prime minister-designate, is perceived to have successfully won a 5% swing of Malay support, said Ooi Heng. 

Wong said such a swing in the new seats could mean trouble for BN.

“If Dr Mahathir has influenced the Malay vote, then Najib has to give up redelineation,” Ooi Heng said.

Likelier scenario

The second scenario is Najib’s likelier choice, given the Election Commission’s apparent urgency in trying to wrap up the redelineation process which has been stalled in Selangor.

The EC has until September to complete the process, but electoral reform group Bersih said it is pursuing the Selangor segment with undue haste, presumably because it wants to complete it in time for the  March Parliamentary sitting.

Owing to several court cases brought by the Selangor government, the state’s redelineation process is being held up. The EC needs to complete the Selangor part of the redelineation before it submits the proposal for new boundaries to the prime minister.

The second round of public displays for Selangor’s new boundaries is scheduled to take place on February 14. The EC will also have to hold new public hearings in Selangor if it receives objections to these new constituencies.

It is learnt that this second round of displays and hearings could take two weeks to complete. This means the EC will submit the redelineation to the prime minister in March when Parliament is already in session.  

“Najib needs the new electoral boundaries because it gives BN big advantages,” said Amanah’s Dr Hatta, who is also Kuala Krai MP.   

PH, of which Amanah is a component, has based its election strategy and planning on the old electoral borders, said Dr Hatta.  

“It will be difficult for some of us to adapt to the new boundaries especially if our seats are redrawn. And since the redelineation is gerrymandered, it will give BN an edge. So Najib needs these new borders.”

Another reason for Najib to wait until March is so that Parliament can approve the proposal to add 13 new state seats in Sabah, said another PH leader, Dr Ong Kian Ming of DAP.  

“If Sabah’s proposal doesn’t get the green light from Parliament, these 13 new state seats don’t exist,” said Ong, who is the Serdang MP.

But the risk of going through with the March sitting, said Dr Hatta, is that it lasts a whole month. During debates, new issues that will embarrass BN can crop up. 

“But Najib can still dissolve Parliament halfway, right after he gets the redelineation passed,” said Hatta.

The BN only needs a simple majority of 112 MPs to pass the redelineation. It has 132 MPs. 

Once passed by Parliament, the King has a month to sign off on the exercise,  after which it becomes law. – January 21, 2018.