SEAT negotiations and a fractious relationship with Umno will be factors affecting Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) survival in the 15th general election, political analysts said.

Much will depend on how the coalition chaired by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin will navigate its ties with the country’s oldest and largest party, Umno, as well as with its PN partner PAS, said Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar.

“The game now depends on Umno’s position. If the three Malay parties don’t split then PN might be able to soldier on, post-GE15.

“I imagine this situation is difficult to achieve because of Umno’s political stance, which prompted the removal of Muhyiddin as prime minister,” he said, referring to Muhyiddin losing the support of 15 Umno MPs earlier this month.

Meanwhile, PAS is currently allied with Muhyiddin’s Bersatu in PN and is tied to Umno through Muafakat Nasional (MN).

Hisommudin said it remains to be seen which direction the Islamist party will take.

“Will PAS remain allied with Bersatu or choose to strengthen its ties in MN with Umno? This indicator needs to be seen.

“If PAS and any PN component stay loyal and remain in the coalition, then perhaps PN might be able to survive. If anyone opts out, PN may well be buried,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight.

Muhyiddin, 74, became prime minister in March 2020 after leading a revolt by Bersatu to quit Pakatan Harapan along with defectors from PKR.

This caused Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s resignation, the collapse of the PH government, and enabled Muhyiddin’s rise to power.

Muhyiddin obtained the grudging support of Umno throughout PN’s tenure. However, Umno was unhappy most of the time for being sidelined in important government decisions; Muhyiddin snubbing its MPs for major cabinet posts; and perceived sabotage in the Sabah elections last September.

In the controversial poll, independent candidates believed to be backed by PN ran against Umno contenders.

Muhyiddin resigned on August 16 after nearly 18 months in power.

Umno’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob, 61, has been appointed prime minister after satisfying king he has sufficient backing in the House.

Hisommudin said even though Muhyiddin and Bersatu had backed an Umno man to succeed him, this support will not have much bearing on Bersatu and Umno reaching any agreement on seat negotiations for the next general election.

“For GE15, Bersatu’s main challenge is to be strategic in contesting enough seats that they can win.

“Negotiations may be difficult because Barisan Nasional now controls the government. Umno will certainly dominate the talks, especially parliamentary seats in the Malay-majority constituencies.

“Bersatu and PAS need a balanced number of seats to ensure that they can remain relevant after the election.

“If PN fails to negotiate and later competes with Umno, then PN will find it difficult to defend their current achievements,” Hisommudin added.

PN is no longer the main decision maker, said analyst Oh Ei Sun, despite the assertion by Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu last weekend that Ismail’s government is still a PN government, even with the change in leadership.

By Faizal’s reckoning, it is still a PN government as the majority of the 114 lawmakers who backed Ismail are from the PN coalition.

Oh said even though PN – which comprises Bersatu, PAS, Gerakan and Sabah STAR – is still part of the government, it is no longer in the driver’s seat.

“They are now in the passenger seat. That is the difference for the moment, until the next election,” he said.

Oh also expects Umno, with its strong grassroots support, to dominate seat negotiations. He doubts Umno will be willing to give up seats to Bersatu.

“If Umno could win a certain number of seats in the next election, why would it give any to PN or Bersatu?

“Bersatu, unfortunately, is not a party with a lot of grassroots. So, in any constituency, Umno will say it has the grassroots infrastructure and everything there, and that it should belong to Umno.”

For such reasons, Oh said he is not optimistic about PN’s survival.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Prof Dr Lee Kuok Tiung said PN needs to strengthen its alliance to be relevant and powerful for the next election.

Other than Bersatu and PAS as the strongest parties, the others are “dead wood”.

“Some parties like Gerakan and Sabah Progressive Party were totally lost in GE14.

“So PN needs to strengthen its alliances with others, for example, Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Parti Bersatu Sabah,” he said.

PN also lacks second-line leaders that can replace present leaders, unlike Umno, which has leaders to step in for those who are facing court cases.

Umno, with its longer history, has been able to groom younger leaders, whereas PN has not.

“Umno has very strong grassroots support and plenty of second line of leadership that can take over.

“Umno’s main problem will be its leaders with court cases who are seen as liabilities for the party in moving forward,” Lee said. – August 26, 2021.