BARISAN Nasional cannot expect to win easily in rural seats any more as the number of rural voters shrink because of urbanisation, said an academic.

The government also faces a situation where there are more lexicographic voters in urban seats compared with rural ones. Lexicographic voters are akin to hardcore supporters who are not moved by reason.

National Council of Professors researcher Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali, who presented the topic “Lexicographic voters (LV) in Malaysia (Pahang)”, said contrary to economic terms where support is dictated by demand and supply, LV voters are not rational.

“They are influenced by party labels instead of policy and are non-compensatory voters,” said Asri.

“Some examples of LV voters are in seats, such as Seputeh, Kepong and Cheras.

“In those seats, MCA and Gerakan are almost irrelevant and anything they do does not seem to factor much in the voters’ minds.”

Asri’s study was to gauge which group of voters would determine the vote in a situation where two competing parties offer varying degrees of similar policies.

On the other hand, because of the lower levels of LV voters in rural seats, policies and services make a difference, he added.

“This is where BN is strongest. Our study found that BN’s support lies in BR1M (1Malaysia People’s Aid) recipients, elderly voters, lower income and education groups and those who are contented with the performance of their MPs,” said Asri who spoke in Universiti Malaya yesterday.

Apart from Asri, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali also presented on “Political trends and GE14 simulation (Terengganu)”, while ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute senior fellow Wan Saiful Wan Jan spoke on “Is Umno in trouble in Johor?”.

The event was organised by UM’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMCEDEL) and moderated by its director, Prof Dr Hamidin Abd Hamid.

Asri, who did the study based on Pahang last year, found that the goods and services tax (GST) was still a problem and topped the voters’ list of concerns.

“The Malay agenda was not big in Pahang and although cost of living was also cited as a concern, voters’ dissatisfaction towards GST was higher. Perhaps the timing when the GST came out was bad due to the lower ringgit and other issues.”

Asri said Pakatan Harapan’s strategy of focusing on GST seems to have worked, too.

“As such, BN cannot expect to rely on just services alone as it needs to articulate its policies better to capture the Malay middle-class living in urban areas,” said Asri.

“But Umno is no longer a platform for the Malay middle-class in urban areas. They want more transparency but BN is old thinking and service-oriented.”

Citing civil servants’ unhappiness with GST as an example, Asri said BN needed to explain how the policy has kept them employed.

“GST has helped pay for the 1.6 million civil servants but they are still complaining about it. If the opposition removes GST, can the civil service expect to be maintained?”

On the PH side, Asri said its supporters tend to be regular users of alternative media and are concerned with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd issues.

He also said PH’s proposal to name Dr Mahathir Mohamad as its candidate for prime minister was a non-issue in Pahang.

“When we did our study last October and asked respondents about it, most were nonchalant about it.

“After he was named as PH’s candidate for PM, we followed up with some of these respondents and they said it was illogical to have him again,” said Asri. – January 19, 2018.