THE promotions of Ismail Sabri Yaakob to deputy prime minister and Hishammuddin Hussein to senior minister are not meant to solidify Bersatu’s position but rather to weaken Umno, political analysts said.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who heads Bersatu, has bought some time by defusing the ongoing tension with Umno, and to weaken threats by former prime minister Najib Razak and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who want the party to pull out of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government sooner rather than at the 15th general election (GE15).

Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said Muhyiddin had scored a checkmate, for now, by neutralising threats from Najib and Zahid.

“It doesn’t make Bersatu stronger, but it will keep Umno divided,” Khoo said, adding that Umno could still break its pact with Bersatu and PN come GE15, as per the party’s stand at its annual general meeting in March.

“It’s a drag, and it will not change Bersatu’s political fortunes,” he added.

The Prime Minister’s Office today announced the appointment of Umno vice-president and Senior Minister (Defence) Ismail as the deputy prime minister.

Hishammuddin, the foreign affairs minister was elevated to senior minister (security cluster), which was Ismail’s post prior to this. The Sembrong MP who holds no official post in Umno, is also to help Muhyiddin implement the national recovery plan to exit the Covid-19 lockdown.

Khoo added that the promotions do nothing to cool public anger towards the PN government, which has not allowed Parliament to function during the state of emergency, and which is blamed for poor policies in handling the Covid-19 pandemic.

The promotions come just hours before the Umno Supreme Council meets tonight to decide whether it will withdraw its support for the government and Muhyiddin.

Both Ismail and Hishammuddin, known to be in the Umno faction that wants continued cooperation with PN, have publicly accepted the promotions and thanked Muhyiddin, but, according to Umno Youth chief and supreme council member Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, the council had already decided to reject the deputy prime minister’s post if offered to the party.

As such, tonight’s meeting will reveal the lengths Zahid is willing to go to withdraw support for Bersatu and risk losing the Umno MPs who want to keep their ministerial posts and stick with Muhyiddin’s government, said Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar

“If the Supreme Council is not brave enough to make the decision to pull out and they accept the appointments as a lucrative offer from Umno, then it means Ahmad Zahid and Najib’s cause and game is a failure compared to Muhyiddin’s game,” Hisommuddin said.

International Islamic University Malaysia lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, meanwhile, said the promotions would only worsen divisions in Umno.

“Umno may face some turbulence if the party is unable to reach common ground on the appointment, while Najib and Zahid’s influence may diminish,” he said.

Azmil Tayeb of University Sains Malaysia said the question now is whether the promotions will satisfy Umno division leaders and make them content to stick with PN, or if it will push them to demand a withdrawal of support for the government.

“For me this announcement is a ‘check’ and not yet a ‘mate’.

“Efforts to convince division leaders to not fall for the appointment will have to come from Zahid and Najib as they will be at the losing end if Umno decides to remain with Bersatu,” he said.

Analyst James Chin concurred that the promotions were made due to pressure from Umno, which would otherwise ditch Bersatu for an alliance with PKR.

“In relation to Zahid and Najib, we don’t know whether there were any deals done in relation to the court clusters,” the Senior Fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia said, referring to the multiple corruption charges against Zahid and Najib.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said for now Muhyiddin has managed to weaken the threat from Zahid, who wants all 38 Umno MPs to quit the government. 

But the outcome will very much depend on factional fights within Umno in the next few days or weeks.

“Even in the best scenario for Muhyiddin (whereby) the pro-Bersatu faction successfully seizes the control of Umno, Zahid and Co. will still pull at least six to seven MPs out of the government, leaving Muhyiddin in a minority government, with 108 or 109 Seats,” Wong said. – July 7, 2021.