THE movement control order (MCO) has failed to achieve its objective to quell Covid outbreaks despite a host of public health responses to save lives and limit transmission, said the Pakatan Harapan health committee.  

It said the national response to the Covid crisis is inadequate resulting in increasing fatalities, including more dead-on-arrival cases, high positivity test rates, and a high number of sporadic cases.

They said the intensive care units are overwhelmed as a consequence.

“Our daily numbers hovered stubbornly around 6,000 to 7,000, and our daily positive percentage stood unrelentingly at 8.21% compared to 6.99% a month ago,”  it said in a statement. 

Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, where outbreaks have been concentrated, are under an enhanced MCO.

The Klang Valley accounted for the bulk of yesterday’s new cases with Selangor reporting 2,262 cases, followed by Kuala Lumpur with 616. 

The committee agreed with the Health and Sciences Covid-19 Advisory Group of Experts’ (EAG) on the urgent need for a re-evaluation of the government’s policies and practices to contain the coronavirus. 

“Without the full complement of public health tools such as FTTIS, a lockdown would be underpowered to mitigate the fourth wave,” it said, referring to the system of find, test, trace, isolate and support by its acronym.

It said there are four main variables in the pandemic and failure to understand the dynamics will result in such errors as the current lockdown which has failed to bend the curve and will prove futile in the face of the impending fourth wave.

The first variable is the “activity rate” of people which will determine daily encounters where a positive person infects others, it said.

“Lockdown reduces the activity rate and the tighter the lockdown, the lower the activity rate and hence the less chance of spread.

“Secondly the ‘infectivity rate’, or chance of spreading, will be reduced by mask wearing, physical distancing and improved ventilation. Surely, observing SOPs helps to reduce the infectivity rate.”

“Immunity rate”, which reflects the immune status of the population, is third. 

“The more immunised persons there are (through vaccination or after infection), the fewer the number of susceptible persons to Covid infection. Hence, outbreak fizzles out in a herd immunity setting.

“Finally, the ‘infectious period’ represents the number of days an infectious person spends going about their usual activities among the community. The more time he spends outside and meet others, the greater the chance of spread.”

Hence, the “finding, testing, tracing, isolating and supporting’ of infected persons, especially the asymptomatic, will help reduce the spread. 

“Again, by increasing testing followed by rapid contact tracing and speedy isolation, we actually reduce (the time an infected person is) infectious.

“The four variables work closely in tandem. We can now appreciate that by strengthening FTTIS, we reduce the infectious duration and by double-masking we reduce the infectivity rate.”

But while the lockdown may serve to reduce the activity rate, people cannot be in confined at home indefinitely without destroying ‘lives and livelihoods’.

“In the final analysis, by strengthening of FTTIS, coupled with rapid automated contact tracing and speedy isolation, we can, in fact, reduce our reliance on lockdown or make it short as possible.

“The (absence) of a rapid response FTTIS has been repeatedly flagged by various quarters including the expert advisory group. In fact, some of the indicators utilised by the Health Ministry, notably the positive rate runs counter to the benchmark set by the World Health Organization.”

The statement was issued by PH health committee members Kuala Selangor MP Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, Gopeng MP  Dr Lee Boon Chye, Bangi MP Dr Ong Kian Ming, Lumut MP Dr Mohd Hatta Md Ramli, Kuching MP Dr Kelvin Yil, Bayan Baru MP Sim Tze Tzin, Lanang MP Alice Lau, Selangor exco Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud, Penang exco Dr Norlela Ariffin, Negri Sembilan exco Veerapan Supramaniam, Amanah women’s wing head Dr Niekmah Adam and PKR central committee member Dr Zaliha Mustafa. – July 5 2021.