Endemic Covid-19 does not render herd immunity irrelevant


IT may be too early to state that the Covid-19 pandemic can be controlled by a deft combination of vaccines, social distancing measures and early identification of the virus mutations.

It is a race against time, maybe even an impending disaster.

Immaterial of the eventual outcome, there is no choice now but to take all necessary painful measures to contain the pandemic.

Frankly speaking, the Malaysian economy is a shambles; the emergency ostensibly introduced to fight the pandemic is nothing but a political measure to shore up the regime.

What started off as an epidemic in China has spread far and wide to become a pandemic.

The question is whether we are confidently approaching the status of herd immunity or facing the prospect of Covid-19 growing endemic in our population.

The term “endemic” should not raise alarm bells as the world has had its share of infectious diseases that exist in an endemic steady state.

In other words, we might still reach herd immunity without totally eliminating the scourge of the virus.

Science and Technology Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said recently that Covid-19 virus might never be eliminated.

In other words, the virus could turn out to be endemic.

He also remarked that he had advised Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to be careful about using the term “herd immunity” which might not be attainable should Covid-19 become endemic.

Khairy should make it clear that herd immunity can coexist with the notion of Covid being endemic.

In other words, populations can attain herd immunity provided Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out sufficiently.

We have not done that in Malaysia, at least not for the time being, due to the unequal distribution of vaccines among rich and poor countries. 

The vaccine divide is alarming to say the least.

The matter of herd immunity is further complicated by the mutations of Covid-19.

Khairy might have talked about herd immunity in the beginning, but now he has changed his tune.

Or more precisely, he is careful when using the term herd immunity, knowing very well the implications.

I don’t think herd immunity and an endemic situation are not  mutually exclusive. Coexistence is possible and it might not be bad thing.

The most important consideration is that the majority of the population should be vaccinated.

There can be still herd immunity with endemic Covid-19.

Just in the cases of other diseases that have been largely controlled, but sporadic occurrences can be seen.

In the case of the pandemic, I think it’s very likely that Covid-19 can be contained to a large extent without being totally eliminated.

This is what “endemic” means. – June 23, 2021.

* P. Ramasamy is Penang deputy chief minister.


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