ACCORDING to Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, the government is studying the possibility of relaxing the standard operating procedure under the current lockdown, if daily Covid-19 cases drop to 4,000 cases or less. 

The Centre for Market Education (CME), however, believes that reduction of number of daily infections cannot be a strategy per se, when we aim to go back to a normal life and to avoid further damages in terms of unemployment, gross domestic product losses and prolonged stagnation. 

“The number of daily infections is a very questionable target and can easily be manipulated by playing with the number or the target of tests,” said CME’s chief executive officer Dr Carmel Ferlito, adding that something much more comprehensive, otherwise, by taking into account only daily infections, cases will start spiking after restrictions are eased, and the government once again will have nothing better to offer than lockdowns.

“This non-strategy will force Malaysia to experience hiccup lockdowns for another year or so. We need much more than this. The country cannot survive another year under these conditions. The poor will suffer in a way that we cannot even imagine.” 

CME offers the following points for reflection and action:

1. As recently explained on the journal Science, minimising the R-naught via lockdowns can only prolong the time taken by the pandemic to become endemic. The current R0 will keep mortality rate high for the next 20 years.

2. Our target should not be to minimise infections, but to increase them in a targeted way, allowing the strongest part of the population to develop targeted immunity, while the most vulnerable are protected with ad-hoc initiatives and home-care strategies.

3. A medical emergency needs a medical strategy: pharmaceutical research for effective treatments needs to be enhanced.

4. A new social pact is needed, based on mass, frequent and affordable testing:

– Businesses have to commit to test their staff on a weekly basis, thanks to affordable tools made available by rapid testing technology.

– On the other side, when mass, frequent and affordable testing is introduced, the government should commit to leave businesses to operate and to make their testing expenses tax deductible.

5. Mass and frequent testing will allow earlier detection of cases; detected infections will rise (because of the higher number of tests), but new cases will emerge when they are more treatable and therefore mortality rate, already very low, could be further lowered.

6. More investments are needed to strengthen the healthcare system, with a joint effort from both the government and private sectors. 

“What we suggest is that minimising infections is a non-strategy. Our recommendations aim to further minimise mortality, achieve targeted immunity and get back our lives, avoiding further social and humanitarian disasters,” Ferlito concluded. – June 14, 2021.

* The Centre for Market Education is an academic and educational initiative aiming to promote pluralism and multidisciplinarity in economics learning.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.