HULU Kelang assemblyman Saari Sungib is staring at defeat at the next general election even before a ballot is cast – if the proposed boundary changes to his constituency are pushed through.

A chunk of his support base, which contributed to his winning majorities in the last two elections, is being moved out to a neighbouring constituency.

Voters of Kuala Ampang and Ukay Perdana, who helped elect Saari to the state assembly, are being reassigned to Bukit Antarabangsa, under the delineation proposed by the Election Commission (EC).

Both areas account for 4,881 voters. Currently there are 49,816 registered voters on the rolls – 83% Malay (41,347), 14% Chinese (6,974), 3% Indian (1,494).

Saari said the changes would be unfair to him as they would give Barisan Nasional an advantage.

Lawyer Derek Fernandez, who is also the Selangor government lawyer in the re-delination case, said he was not surprised with the Hulu Kelang proposals.

The EC is like a referee in a football match whose duty is to ensure a fair game, he said. 

“But based on the initial proposals by the EC, it appears that they are giving a six-goal advantage to one party with a small goalpost and expecting the other party to compete fairly,” he said.

The proposal does not appear to be prepared by a professional government servant but by politicians, he said.

Kuala Ampang voters contributed to 67% of Saari’s votes in the 2013 general election, where he won by  2,314 votes.

On the two occasions he won, he had contested on a PAS ticket.

He defeated BN candidate Abdul Rahim Pandak Kamarudin in 2013 and another BN candidate Ahmad Bujang by 2,134 votes in 2008, when he first won the seat.

Saari joined Amanah in 2015 after he had a fallout with PAS the year before.

In the 2013 general election, Saari said he received 1,942 votes from Kuala Ampang, which tilted the contest in his favour.

The racial composition in Kuala Ampang then was 92% Chinese, 8% Indians and the remaining Malays and others.

He shared the Malay vote with his BN counterpart but the non-Malay voters made the difference in the end.

Now the two areas seen as tipping points to his victory are being moved to Bukit Antarabangsa, which is held by Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali.

The Hulu Kelang state seat along with two others, Batu Caves and Gombak Setia, are under the Gombak parliamentary constituency, a seat held by Azmin.

So, who are the new voters being moved into Hulu Kelang? The EC has proposed voters in Jalan Enggang Selatan and Jalan Enggang Utara.

A majority of the votes in these areas were secured by BN. At last count, there are 5,408 voters here.

Their votes for the BN candidate did little to dent Azmin’s majority but in Hulu Kelang, it could be a game-changer.

According to statistics released by the state government think-tank Darul Ehsan Institute (IDE), the addition of the two areas will increase the Malay composition in Hulu Kelang by 5% from 83% to 88% while Chinese voters will be reduced from 14% to 9%. The Indian composition remains the same at 3%.

Despite the odds appearing to be stacked against him in favour of BN, if the re-delination goes through, Saari remains an optimist.

“I still think my track record here should help me.”

IDE in its report said BN is expected to win the most seats in Selangor in GE14 following the re-delineation exercise.

IDE chief executive Professor Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said based on 2013 voting trends, BN is expected to win 20 seats, while PAS would win nine, DAP (15) and PKR (12).

While BN’s 20 seats may not be enough for it to form the state government on its own, PAS’ breakaway from the main opposition bloc and warmer ties with Umno could help BN retake Selangor.

Pakatan Harapan currently has 29 lawmakers in the Selangor legislative assembly, PAS (13), BN (12) and independents (2).

PH’s total comprises 14 from DAP, 13 from PKR and two from Amanah.

BN lost the state to the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat opposition pact in GE12, when it won only 20 of the 56 state seats.

In 2013, BN suffered a second blow when it lost another eight seats and conceded its two-thirds majority to Pakatan Rakyat in the state assembly.

Redzuan said 46 seats in Selangor would be redrawn under the re-delineation exercise.

As a result, the think-tank said eight seats, including Hulu Kelang, which is currently held by Amanah, and PAS seat Paya Jaras, are likely to fall to BN.

Another four seats, such as Sementa, currently held by PKR, may see the incumbent party winning by fewer than 1,000 votes.

In a statement to The Malaysian Insight, election watchdog Bersih 2.0 said the IDE analysis only proved its suspicion of massive malapportionment and gerrymandering in the current re-delineation exercise.

Bersih 2.0 said it was a not a surprise as IDE analysis is one of many which has shown that the proposed re-delineation is favourable to BN.

“Bersih 2.0 is appalled at the way democratic systems and institutions, which are meant to uphold and safeguard the rights of the people, have been used to dilute the voice and power of the people to choose their own government,” it said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the hearings on the re-delination exercise continues and attempts by the Selangor government to get more time to prepare itself hit a stonewall when the Shah Alam High Court earlier this week struck out its application to postpone a scheduled appearance at a local inquiry.

The decision meant that the EC public inquiry will proceed as usual without representatives from the Selangor government present. – January 10, 2018.