ON May 9, 2018, Malaysians on an anti-corruption agenda voted to oust 60 years of Barisan Nasional (BN) rule.

Three years later, after much party-hopping and a new but unelected government, the general election is shaping up to be a fight for dominance between Malay parties, Umno, Bersatu and PAS, analysts said.

The Malays, as the largest voting bloc in the country, will determine the outcome of GE15, analysts said.

The bloc is now split because of soured ties between Perikatan Nasional (PN) allies Umno and Bersatu and uncertainty over where the Islamist PAS stands.

A poll held by political analyst Mazlan Ali before Ramadan found that 55% of Malay voters surveyed still preferred  to support a Malay-Muslim party and would be likely to choose a coalition that included PAS and Bersatu.

The survey of 3,285 respondents found that Umno had 30% support while Pakatan Harapan (PH) had only 15%.

Malays made up 73% of the poll respondents, Chinese 15% and Indians 12%. 

Mazlan said the decline in support for Umno stemmed from the power struggle within the party and its refusal to collaborate with PN in GE15.

This has affected perception of the party among Malay voters.

“Previously, PAS and Umno had a good relationship,” Mazlan said, referring to the Muafakat Nasional pact that was formed after Umno-BN lost federal power in 2018 after six decades.

“But now, Umno has chosen not to cooperate with PAS and Bersatu in GE15. Malays may be disappointed about this and shift support to the Bersatu and PAS alliance.

“Umno’s biggest weakness right now is that people think they want power too much. The country is facing a (health and economic) crisis right now, but they seem to be ignoring that and are instead focused on getting power.”

The Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political science lecturer said another factor in Umno’s weakening appeal is the emergence of more young Malay voters who do not buy into the party’s narrative.

The support for PAS-Bersatu is also tied to the favourable views Malays have of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who has laucnhed various economic stimulus packages to help Malaysians weather the pandemic, Mazlan added.

Similarly, a Merdeka Center survey in January found that Muhyiddin’s approval rating was stable at 67%.

Malay unity

Many Malay voters still believe in the idea of a Malay-Muslim alliance that should rule the country, Mazlan said, hence their support for the Muafakat Nasional pact between Umno and PAS formed after GE14.

Now that Umno and PAS have different views on support Bersatu-PN, Malay voters favour a PAS-Bersatu alliance because of their desire for a Malay-Muslim government.

“Malay support is not unanimous for either PN or Umno,” Mazlan added.

Political analyst Oh Ei Sun, however, is of the view that support for Umno has not drastically. The party lost in GE14 because of three cornered fights created by PAS in certain seats.

“The plan in GE14 was to split the vote for PH, but in the end it was the vote for Umno that was split.”

It is also unclear whether Umno will cooperate with PAS in GE15, added the senior researcher at the School of International Relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, 

“Even if Umno doesn’t collaborate with anyone, PH is relatively weak, so it is difficult for them to win support like before.”

Given Umno’s size and strength, its participation is needed in any ruling coalition for a stable government , Oh noted.

Umno won the most seats at 54 among the Malay parties in GE14.

“Umno needs to be the ‘big brother’ for any coalition to be stable. Otherwise, just like now, although you are a member of the ruling coalition, if you are not the big brother, the government will not be stable.”

Compared to Umno, its splinter party Bersatu has not grown stronger in the last three years as it does not have strong grassroots support. This is a major shortcoming for the party, Oh said.

“Bersatu has not rejected PAS and has instead chosen to work closely with it,” he said. – May 9, 2021.