UMNO and Barisan Nasional (BN) are still tough opponents even though the Malay party is having its own internal crisis, said political analysts.

They told The Malaysian Insight the weakness in Umno involved only its leaders, not the party’s structure.

Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Umno members from the branch to grassroot levels are loyal to the party, adding that no branch has closed as a result of internal disputes.

“It will be hard for Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Bersatu to replace Umno and BN in the next GE,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

He said Bersatu cannot be considered to be strong as the party is no longer part of Pakatan Harapan (PH), unlike DAP and Amanah.

BN may also not feel the heat but its component parties, MCA and MIC, are no longer seen as being relevant as their communities tend to support PH.

“Bersatu still lacks members and they are not backed by PKR or DAP.”

“BN, especially Umno, can hold on if the situation continues, but MCA and MIC are less relevant as the Chinese and Indians prefer PH.

“Bersatu needs time and if the election is held this year, there is not enough time to strengthen its grip,” said Awang Azman.

He said the situation may change if Bersatu succeeds in increasing its number of branches and membership.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Mazlan Ali said only divisiveness in Umno can give PN and Bersatu the advantage.

Mazlan said if Umno does not show signs of reconciliation, more of its leaders would support PN and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin.

“If Umno continues to be weak, Umno will lose the people’s trust. This is an advantage for Bersatu and the next PN.”

Ilham Centre, however, finds it difficult to say if Bersatu and PN can replace Umno and BN.

Its executive director Hisommudin Bakar said some are quite critical towards PN, which they felt controls the Malay narrative.

“People are critical towards PN, but PN’s advantage now is that they are able to control the Malay narrative,” Hisommudin said.

“There is some balance. Some people may find that certain issues are yet to be solved, but the Malays feel the government is doing okay.

Overall there is no big complaint against PN when it comes to Malay issues.

“Umno supporters feel the party will survive (not being part of the government) because of support from its grassroots.”

Hisommudin also said there are those who feel that Umno has recovered from the issues of 2018 but the drawback now is the division among top leaders who are not firm in making a decision in leaving the government.

“The grassroots feel it is best for Umno not to be in the government. They feel Umno is being dragged into the government’s unpopularity. So Umno has to cut ties with PN.” – April 20, 2021.