UMNO, PAS and Bersatu are expected to ratchet up Malay-Muslim fervour in the run up to the 15th general election, after toning down religious rhetoric for the year since the majority-Malay Perikatan Nasional government ousted Pakatan Harapan.

A national poll is expected towards the end of the year, after the state of emergency is lifted in August, or early next year.

The use of such divisive rhetoric is almost inevitable as the three Malay parties vie for the same voter segment, analysts said.

“More so, after PAS has decided to stick with Bersatu in the PN coalition,” Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi told The Malaysian Insight.

Prior to the formation of the PN government last year, Umno and PAS had played the race and religious card against PH on issues such as the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the Rome Statute. 

Umno, too, had frequently accused DAP of having a “Christianisation agenda” because a few of its prominent lawmakers are Christians.

“As Umno, PAS and Bersatu are Malay parties, all of them will want to show Malay voters why they are the better protectors of Malay and Islamic interests,” said Awang Azman, who teaches Malay ethics.

Using such rhetoric will be particularly useful in the conservative Malay belt states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, where PAS is strong.

“However, such rhetoric is less effective among urban or west coast Malays as they are exposed to other ideas.

“Therefore, for Umno, it will show a more conservative side in the east coast, while letting MCA and MIC show a more moderate Barisan Nasional side in the west coast.”

Umno at its 2020 general assembly on March 27 and 28 declared it would pursue measures to strengthen shariah law in Malaysia.

In his policy speech, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the party will amend the federal constitution to enhance shariah law after recent civil court cases were seen as challenging the position of the Islamic court system.

Last year, deputy minister for Islamic affairs Ahmad Marzuk Shaary – the PAS MP for Pengkalan Chepa – has similarly vowed to amend the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act or RUU 355 to expand the Islamic courts’ jurisdiction last year.

In the week Umno reaffirmed its decision not to work with Bersatu, a Friday sermon urged Muslims to maintain the current government, while rejecting PH or “enemies of Islam”.

Declining Malay support for Umno?

Yet, is Umno doing this because of declining Malay support?

Merdeka Centre research manager Tan Seng Keat does not think so. Rather, it has become the norm for Malay and Islamic issues to crop up right before elections.

“In the past, the debate was between BN and non-BN parties, such as Pakatan Rakyat or PH, on who can better protect Malay-Muslim interests.”

However, battle lines for GE15 are being redrawn, now that Umno has decided to go against PAS and Bersatu. The main contest will be between these three Malay parties, said Tan, who conducts surveys to gauge political sentiments.

According to Tan, there are 165 constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia, of which around 120 are majority Malay.

“All three parties will have to compete on this ground and, with Umno coming into the elections as a non-ruling party, it will be interesting to see if their campaign infrastructure can function effectively under new conditions. 

“Can PAS and Bersatu use the advantages given to the government of the day? We will see,” said Tan.

In the 2013 general election, BN took 60.4% of the Malay vote, but due to the anti-BN wave in 2018, that support fell to 43.5%. Malay support for PAS and PH in 2018, is estimated to be 28% and 25.5%, respectively.

“Zahid may want to compete with PAS for conservative votes, but may lose out on others,” said Tan.

Impact on Sabah and Sarawak

For Sabah and Sarawak, which pride themselves on their racial and religious tolerance, Awang Azman feels the Malay-Muslim rhetoric will have little impact.

Umno has seats and contests in Sabah, but not in Sarawak.

“Interestingly, while PAS under PN is in Sabah, Sabah voters seem to be unfazed.”

Awang Azman added that although Sarawakians are generally unimpressed by the use of race and religious rhetoric, voters will still pick Gabungan Parti Sarawak as they have stronger ties with the voters there.

From a civil group’s perspective, Pertubuhan Ikram Malaysia vice president Shahrul Aman said political parties should not be resorting to religious rhetoric to attract votes in elections.

“Politicising religion for political gains should stop as the widespread repercussions can be disastrous.

“We must not condone this, especially at a time when priority should be on reviving the country from the pandemic and ensuring socio-economic stability,” said Shahrul. – April 12, 2021.