TWO days of the Umno AGM produced fireworks and created ripples across political parties and alignments, ensuring intra- and inter-party bickering will persist and not be resolved soon.

One thing we can all be sure of is that we are going to have a snap election this year. It can hardly be deferred any longer given the resolutions passed at the AGM which give an ultimatum to the ruling pact to go to the polls as soon as the emergency period is lifted.

Truth is, the AGM did not much discuss national policies or any vision of new governance even though the party be ever so ambitious about becoming the dominant power again. On display were mostly posturing, blatant jostling for power and derogation of their political opponents.

Building on the Umno Supreme Council’s February decision, they insist they will not work with Bersatu, Anwar and DAP and on using their own BN logo while “going solo” in the general election. Even if that meant multi-cornered contests, including the prospect of facing PAS.

Another bombshell they dropped was: if the prime minister hasn’t announced the date of the general election by the end of the emergency period, Umno will quit the Perikatan Nastional government. 

Some say the Umno leaders, especially party president Zahid Hamidi, chose fierce words to hit out, which should imply that Umno is very confident in their own political might that they could secure a big win in the next elections, hence regaining the dominance in governance.

The major tune from the AGM sounded like this: never again shall Umno be subjected to the (rule of) Bersatu, which has a recent record of attempting to replace, divide and steal Umno’s political resources and territories.

However, if Umno was to depend on the BN grand old party brand as well as their grassroot support, would they then be able to perform as expected, gaining back their lost ground in 2018, including the hot seat of prime minister? 

Never mind that currently there is no clear indication or consensus of whom from Umno should be the prime ministerial candidate, as compared to the PN camp where they already have the current sitting Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin as a household name who has wide appeal and some proven track record.

If Umno had really presented a strong case, then why did they fail to install their own candidate as the chief minister during the Sabah state elections last year? The post was handed over to Bersatu instead.

This is despite Bersatu being only newly introduced into the state and they have no effective grassroot mobilisation, and yet they’ve won big in terms of seat number. Hadn’t the multi-cornered contests in 2018 shown that they benefited PAS and Pakatan Harapan?

Umno may overestimate their own popularity, but it is at their own peril to have underestimated their political opponents, and thus run afoul of a big taboo as the Chinese idiom would say, “arrogant soldier will be defeated”.

Compared to 2018, and especially if Umno quit the government, they would appear in the general election not as a caretaker government for the first time in history. This is no small feat as Umno would probably understand best the big (and unfair) advantage of being the incumbent. 

Bersatu under the leadership of Muhyiddin would be backed by government machinery, which would likely put them in greater command of the election campaign, especially during the pandemic.

Let’s say if the PN government intends to copy the playbook from the Singapore’s last year’s general elections campaign restriction rules, then this move could neutralise and diminish the greatest strength in both Umno and PAS in terms of grassroot mobilisation.

Furthermore, Umno’s dramatic efforts to bring down the government may also create antipathy among the middle voters who may feel that Umno is responsible for creating more political instability.

Some voters are not even ready for the general election during the pandemic. In such a situation, maybe more votes of sympathy could go to the Muhyiddin-led PN. 

If the third wave of pandemic is already under control, the national Covid-19 immunisation programme is executed as expected, and the economy shows good signs of revival, then the voters might give credit to the PN government for the feel-good factor. If Umno already sever ties with the PN, they might find themselves harder to claim the credit as much.

Umno forcing PAS to pick a side has also backfired. PAS has subsequently announced that it will work with Bersatu in the PN coalition thereby ditching Muafakat Nasional.

It is perhaps a rational choice based on political interest and careful calculations instead of principles. By sharing the PN platform and the electoral pact, PAS could secure more votes, claim the credit from the recent governance success and access to the PN government’s resources.

If PN loses, probably PAS could still win more seats than the previous GE. In the likely event that BN could not govern on its own, PAS would be in a stronger position when it comes to negotiating power sharing.

However, if PN could win, then naturally PAS’ position within the winning coalition would be higher than that of aligning with the domineering partner Umno. 

All in all, the louder noises the Umno leaders make and them hitting at their political opponents from within and outside, do not suggest that they are more likely to emerge victorious in the upcoming election.

Instead, the loud moves might even reveal more strategic weaknesses and errors in situational judgment. Anwar Ibrahim has demonstrated time and again that this is counterproductive.

The one who wins is the one who makes the brilliant moves – stealthily and decisively. – April 5, 2021.

* Lim Chee Han is a founding member of Agora Society and a policy researcher. He holds a PhD in infection biology from Hannover Medical School, Germany, and an MSc in immunology and BSc in biotechnology from Imperial College London. Health and socioeconomic policies are his concerns. He believes a nation can advance significantly if policymaking and research are taken seriously.