INTERNAL elections will give Umno a fresh leadership to take the party into the next general election, but it could also further fracture the country’s largest Malay party, said analysts.

The observers said some members could leave the party if their candidates did not make the top leadership positions.

Political analyst Oh Ei Sun said elections now would result in a clear prime ministerial candidate for the party.

“If you hold (internal elections) before the general election, of course assuming there is a new face who becomes the party president, then you’ve got more oomph leading the party into the general election,” he said

“Having the party election before the general election you will have a definite candidate for prime minister. It gives the party a refreshed and renewed look instead of the ‘court cluster’ leading the party. 

“It gives more focus to the party and the voters. The party grassroots can say they want Khairy Jamaluddin, Mohamad Hasan, Hishammuddin Hussein to be prime minister and it is more likely the voters will vote for the party if they like the new choices,” he said.

By “court cluster”, he meant the group of Umno leaders who standing trial for are various crimes. It includes party president Zahid Hamidi who faces money laundering, corruption and criminal breach of trust charges in connection with millions of ringgit belonging to his charity organisation Akalbudi Foundation.

The disadvantage of holding party polls just before a general election was that those who lost might not be motivated to help the party campaign, Oh said.

In fact, the unhappy losers could decide to jump ship altogether.

“Nowadays it’s very fashionable, especially for the losing factions, to leave the party.”

On the other hand, if the party elections were postponed, Umno would save resources and more importantly, keep the party divisions contained. It also means Zahid won’t risk losing the party presidency.

“If I were Zahid, I will try to delay elections as much as possible because I may or may not win.

“People like Khairy would of course like to have the elections as soon as possible because they would like to have a shot at the top position so that if the party wins the general election afterwards, they will become prime minister.”

Even if Zahid were to end up leading Umno in the next general election, Oh said Umno would still do well.

“Umno will win quite handsomely (led by Zahid in the general election led by Zahid), at least as good as it did in 2018. I don’t think Umno will win an outright majority; it’s more likely it will win a substantial number of seats, as many as in 2018 and maybe more. 

In the past week, Umno members Khairy Jamaluddin and Reezal Merican Naina Merican have urged the party leaders to hold elections in June as a way to resolve internal issues.

Former president Najib Razak has disagreed, saying polls would further divide and weaken the party ahead of a general election.

Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham centre agreed party elections would result in a new Umno leadership but at the cost of creating more fissures within the party.

Looking at Umno’s internal divisions, he said a split was inevitable after party elections. 

“(But party elections are held), Umno will get a new set of leaders with a fresher mandate to face the general election. It is up to the wisdom of the leadership now to decide whether or not to proceed,” he said.

Hisomuddin said Zahid was under pressure to call for elections which are due in June.

At the same time, he said it was not unusual for a party to hold off internal polls in a election year so that the party machinery could focus on the all-important campaign.

“But that scenario happened when Umno was the government. The minister in charge of the Registration of Societies was also under the supervision of Umno minister. Now, that privilege is gone.

“However, Umno still has room to extend the period to hold elections up to 18 months from the date the elections should have been held,” he said.

In 2018, Umno postponed its party elections to pave the way for the 14th General Election.

Without the party election and with Zahid leading the charge in GE15, Hisomuddin said Umno may have difficulty winning the election, as Zahid’s multiple corruption charges will be used as political capital by the opposition at the polls.

“Honestly, Zahid’s image is badly tarnished at the moment. His stance seems to be a flip flop, inconsistent and even considered weak in his leadership style to overcome the current internal crisis in Umno.

“Without the party election, Zahid will be Umno’s war general. In this situation, the lack of aura in him, it will be difficult to see Umno’s victory in the general election.”

Political analyst Dr Chandra Muzzafar however said that before Umno can even attempt to have its party election, it should first come to terms with itself.

“Before the party election, what Umno really has to do is come to terms with itself.

“Umno like any other party which has been in power for a very long time and then you’re defeated, you have to sit down and reflect and do a lot of soul searching.

“The need to do soul searching on what went wrong and correct it, but Umno leaders don’t want to do that,” he said.

He added that the party election could be a double edged sword that either affirms Zahid’ position as president or it may boot him out.

“Looking at the recent Umno assembly, the delegates overwhelmingly endorsed Zahid’s position. This is the primary challenge that the others face. He has a certain hold over the party and he’s exploiting that.

“You’re the man at the top, you get people to support you blindly. He has a grip on certain people in the party. Having a party election will not change that. It may even confirm that grip.

“If that happens, it shows that a corrupt leadership is still able to exercise power and authority.  The party election will merely confirm his dominance and others like him. Which is why before the party election there has to be soul searching,” he said.

However, he said if the party is slated to have its party election in June, it should proceed with it.

“If party elections are due, it’s better to do it now because we don’t know when the general election will be held.” – April 3, 2021.