UMNO cannot win the 15th general election without PAS, said analysts.

A survey in November showed that Umno, PAS and Bersatu together have 84% of the support.

“Umno cannot afford to stand alone and has to depend on PAS to defend its current number of seats,” Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Dr Kamarul Zaman Yusoff told The Malaysian Insight.

“Umno is trying its best to ensure that PAS and Gabungan Parti Sarawak stay with them in the next election.

“In the event PAS does not leave Bersatu, Umno will still not put up candidates in seats contested by PAS, except in Terengganu and Kelantan, so that the possibility of Umno teaming up with PAS after GE15 remains open,” said the international studies lecturer.

He said Umno president Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s speech in the recently concluded 2020 Umno general assembly showed Barisan Nasional still wants to work with other parties after the election.

“It is an admission that BN, on its own, cannot win GE15,” Kamarul said.

Although Umno won 54 seats in GE14, it is now down to 35 after a series of defections to Bersatu and one death while PAS has 18. Bersatu, which only won 13, now has 31.

Umno + PAS + Bersatu = success

The current formula of Umno, PAS and Bersatu can give them 90% of the 120 Malay-majority seats in Peninsular Malaysia, said International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Lau Zhe Wei.

“More than 110 of the 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia are Malay-majority seats. As long as the seat is 60% and above Malay voters, this combination will win,” said Lau.

If PAS leaves Bersatu for Umno, Lau said, the combination will bag most of the Malay-majority seats.

“Bersatu itself does not have its machinery or has a strong grassroots base, unlike Umno and PAS. Furthermore, the seat-overlapping between Umno and PAS is comparatively workable,” said the political science lecturer.

But if Umno were to go up against PAS and Bersatu, it will only go back to status quo, said Lau.

“Umno and PAS will get back their share of votes. But I cannot see how Bersatu is able to gain many votes on their own.

“In GE14, Bersatu’s votes were basically for Pakatan Harapan and against the BN government.

“With the current Bersatu, I cannot see any selling point for the party. I would say the split votes will be similar to the 2018 GE for Umno and PAS as Bersatu can be ignored,” said Lau.

Yes, Umno can go it alone

But Larut Umno’s Faisal Hisam believes it is not all gloom and doom for his party.

“Conservatively, I think we can win 65,” said the former Larut youth exco.

Using Larut as an example, Faisal said his division is confident of regaining two state seats – Selama and Kubu Gajah – from PAS in the next election.

“And there is the Larut parliamentary seat as well.

“Overall, Umno is confident of taking back at least 10 of the 15 seats held by those who defected to Bersatu after GE14,” said Faisal.

He said if PAS were to stay with Umno, his division would have to work out how to share the two state seats in his parliamentary constituency.

“But if they decide to go with Bersatu, we don’t have to think so much and just go all out to win back our seats,” said Faisal.

The Larut parliamentary constituency has three state seats, of which Selama and Kubu Gajah fell to PAS due to the nationwide anti-BN swing.

After GE14, 15 Umno seats – 10 in Peninsular Malaysia and five in Sabah – fell to Bersatu after its reps defected.

Among the seats in Peninsular Malaysia that have fallen to Bersatu are Tanah Merah, Jeli, Hulu Terengganu, Tasek Gelugor, Larut, Bagan Serai, Bukit Gantang, Sabak Bernam, Masjid Tanah and Mersing. – March 31, 2021.