THE delayed 2020 Umno General Assembly should have been nothing more than just formalising Umno’s breakaway from Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional (PN) ahead of the next elections, but in reality, it was more than that.

For as much time as delegates and leaders devoted to rationalising the decision to part with Bersatu, the biggest Malay party also delivered an ultimatum to PAS.

With PAS’s two most senior figures – Abdul Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man – seated on the main stage, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi summed up Umno’s intentions by reminding the Islamists that it was not too late to back away from Bersatu.

PAS’s commitment to the Muafakat Nasional charter, or in other words Umno, was being questioned.

Breaking Bersatu

“Breaking away from Bersatu alone is not enough,” said Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar.

“Umno wants to break Bersatu by removing PN’s largest party.”

He said that although Bersatu has 35 MPs (after adding the four PKR MPs from Lubok Antu, Julau, Tebrau and Kuala Langat), more than half of them represent Malay-majority constituencies.

Hisommudin said voters in constituencies such as Jeli, Tanah Merah, Larut, etc, only know Umno and PAS.

“With just one year experience, Bersatu cannot defend these constituencies without a party like PAS.”

Of the 35 MPs, 15 came into the party from Umno, while another 10 arrived from PKR. Of the 15 former Umno MPs, 10 represent Malay-majority constituencies where both Umno and PAS are strong.

With elections looming soon, Hisomuddin said Umno must know whether it will face Bersatu or Bersatu and PAS for the 120-odd Malay constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia.

However, more than separating its friend and foes, political scientist Dr Wong Chin Huat believes that Umno is trying to finish Bersatu by isolating the party.

“All Bersatu has at the moment is the power of incumbency, but this advantage is like having solar power while dusk sets,” said Wong.

“Without PAS, Bersatu has little or no party infrastructure in many constituencies and an even smaller pool of party voters.”

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi also believes that Bersatu or PN will be very much weakened if PAS abandons them.

“Bersatu will be paralysed as it would have lost the second biggest Malay party. I believe that the other parties – STAR, Gerakan and SAPP – will also abandon PN if PAS leaves,” said the Malay ethnic studies lecturer.

The only contribution PN will be remembered for is toppling the Pakatan Harapan government, said the Sarawakian.

Will PAS ditch Umno or Bersatu?

Yet, despite Umno’s overtures, Wong believes that PAS would rather be with Bersatu than Umno.

“PAS will use this opportunity to mainstream the party after the Amanah group left in 2015.”

He said that PAS can inherit PN or become the lead party in the coalition if Bersatu fails.

Wong said that Bersatu’s worst nightmare is for PAS to betray them at the last minute by staying neutral.

“PAS will stay neutral if Umno promises to leave its seats alone. This would be a good deal for Umno, except in Kelantan and Terengganu,” said Wong.

Hisomuddin also believes that PAS will stay with PN.

“Its reaction to the Umno General Assembly shows that they are not willing to give up Bersatu for Umno,” said the former student activist.

Reacting to the events, PAS Selangor deputy chief Mohamed Sukri Omar warned Umno and called it “rude” for forcing PAS to choose, but as Pemuda chief Dr Aysraf Wajdi Dusuki said in his closing remarks on Saturday: “Are you friends or foe, PAS? Umno needs to know”. – March 29, 2021.