IT is not only Umno – which predicted to perform well in the next general election – that is tempted by the prospect of a 2021 snap election in such tumultuous time.

I suspect many Malaysians may want the deliverance of a general election so that some semblance of political stability could be restored, even if the risk of Barisan Nasional returning to political hegemony looms large.

Compared to an embattled Perikatan Nasional government that is only propped up by defectors while an emergency is decreed to suspend Parliament, some yearn for a strong Umno-BN government and believe that would be considered an administration upgrade.

Malaysia has never had a “snap election” given that the pre-2018 political dynamics were relatively “stable” – at least the parliamentary majority was never in doubt – and no political or economic crisis had not compelled past prime ministers to dissolve Parliament prematurely for another mandate.

More so, past general elections had also ensured that an undisputed winner was produced with a healthy majority. Therefore, the interval between elections in Malaysia is always between four and five years when Parliament’s term is near its end.

This is increasingly not the case for the 14th Parliament as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has promised that there will be a general election once the Covid-19 pandemic is under control.

He has said it in November 2020, and promised a general election would be called as soon as the emergency is lifted.

Still, it is the prime minister’s sole prerogative to decide when the general election is to be called, so it is also for him to determine when the Covid-19 pandemic is “over”.

Nevertheless, the situation surrounding Muhyiddin’s government is clearly unstable and at the point of breaking but only sustained through a controversial emergency rule.

The recent decision of Umno to sever ties with Muhyiddin’s PN coalition in the next election worsens matters. Therefore, the prime minister is more likely to be forced to call an election this year and the country would be going back to the polls for the second time in slightly more than three years. A very first “snap election” in Malaysia’s political history. 

The electoral contest for the upcoming polls in Peninsular Malaysia would most likely yield a three-cornered contest between PH, Umno-BN and PN. This is the scenario that Umno has always wanted with PH and is quietly confident about while the PN coalition is desperate to avoid.

Umno-BN is clearly the most outspoken of the three coalitions for a general election because of its established brand, strong machinery, and ubiquitous presence throughout the peninsula. 

The 2018 was a bitter experience for Umno but the fact remains that the party still won more seats than any single party. Its initial 54-seat advantage was only depleted through rounds of defections, instigated by Bersatu when the latter was in PH.

Therefore, Umno has reasons to believe an immediate general election would return them back to Putrajaya while any delay would only give Bersatu extra time to further weaken Umno through defections.

Yet, those that hope for a decisive general election that could resolve the current political stability is premised upon BN-Umno – or PH for the optimist – winning an outright majority or in the new political landscape, parliamentarian numbers that would far outweigh PH and PN.

But what if the next general election, which poses the question of who should govern Malaysia, only gives us a result that nobody should govern? This means that the parliamentary arithmetic does not change much even after a reshuffle attempt.

Popular opinion dictates that the only fate awaiting Bersatu is a total wipe-out at GE15 after being dumped by Umno.

Bersatu was not expected to do well in the recent Sabah elections, too. Yet, to the surprise of many, it managed to win a considerable number of seats.

Crucially, Bersatu was also able to flex its political muscle and wrest the chief minister’s post from Umno despite having way fewer seats than BN. What are the guarantees that the outcome of Sabah would not be replicated at the federal level if there is an election soon?

There is too much emphasis on a political party’s membership, machineries and grassroot operations and the truth is, these are not exactly where Bersatu has a distinct advantage over Umno and anyone else.

Bersatu has the incumbency advantage that even Umno is having difficulty to contain and risks splitting its own party. Sabah and Perlis’ Umno have already pledged to work with Bersatu which contradicts the decision made by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

Bersatu stands out from Umno in one important aspect, too: the candidacy of prime minister. Zahid could only wrest the prime ministership from Muhyiddin if Umno has a majority that could not be challenged in GE15, which also means if the next elections could deliver a result similar to the one that the BN used to get prior to 2018.

Yet, the fragmentation of Malay politics has shattered that possibility and Umno might still lose out on the prime minister to Bersatu even if the former is the Malay party that garnered the most parliamentary seats in the next election.   

Muhyiddin, for all his administration’s faults and the damage he has done to parliamentary democracy, is still able to garner more support from others like PAS, Gerakan and Sabah and Sarawak parties for now.

The lowest common denominator of prime minister for Bersatu, Umno and PAS to accept has now become an important cog of the PN coalition that one can do without.

Bersatu might only gain fewer seats as compared to BN-Umno in the next elections but as long as its coalition partners are willing to support Muhyiddin, there is essentially nothing that Umno can do to stop Muhyiddin retaining the top post.

All things said, it is still possible for BN-Umno and PH to be swept to power given the unpredictable nature of our first-past-the-post electoral system.

It is also the unpredictability of our electoral system that I am not convinced of the prophesised demise of Bersatu and I fear very much that the next general election might not grant us political stability.

The electoral results might return us a status quo that would only intensify political defections and backstabbing. – March 7, 2021.
 

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.