SINCE last year, terms and hashtags, such as ‘MCO 2.0’, have been trending on social media as Malaysians are anticipating a second round of the movement control order (MCO).

Finally, MCO 2.0 is here – as of Wednesday, January 13 – and tentatively it is scheduled to be lifted on January 26.

As Malaysians experienced the MCO from March 18 to June 9, 2020, this time round people seem like more ready for it and some people expected it would happen some time soon.

Compared to the first MCO, the public is more prepared this time round to face the lockdown. 

There is no rush for groceries and there are no empty shelves in most supermarkets or grocery shops.

To MCO or not to MCO?

Apparently, there are two different groups of people who welcome the implementation of MCO, while another group rejects it.

With the experience of the first lockdown, most of the people, especially the SME sector and the non-essential sector do not think they can easily afford it given the severe socio-economic impact, especially with the moratorium ending.

Not to forget, last December, Defence Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said that it is projected that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will suffer losses of RM300 million per day.

This would cause the labour market to decline, reduction in household expenditure, loss of permanent jobs and closure of businesses.

Therefore, despite having more than 1,000 new Covid-19 cases daily over the previous few months, the government still decided to end the CMCO for most of the states in Peninsular Malaysia on December 5 and allow people to move freely across the country.

Sadly, after the government lifted the ban on interstate and inter-district (red and green zone) travel, Covid-19 subsequently spread across the nation.

In addition, director-general of health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah admitted that the CMCO had failed to bring down Covid-19 case numbers, with several clusters having been sparked by interstate travel.

Apparently, the anxiety of getting back to normal life and freely travelling around is one of the reasons in trending up the number of Covid-19 cases and bringing back the MCO.

MCO 1.0 v MCO2.0

During the first day of MCO 2.0, local news reported that city roads recorded a higher number of vehicle traffic compared with the first MCO.

Some people even think that MCO 2.0 is more relaxed compared with the first MCO.

Apparently, it is more relaxed and less restrictive than the first MCO. First, two people allowed per vehicle and more industries are allowed to operate, such as nurseries, private kindergartens, government offices, and SPM students are allowed back to school. 

Furthermore, outdoor recreational activities, such as jogging and cycling, are allowed among people within the same household.  

Although stay at home rules are still part of the MCO, this time movement is limited to 10km radius to people in a vehicle. In other words, it means that freedom of movement is more loose compared with the first MCO. MCO 2.0 only covers six states and three federal territories and the first MCO was nationwide. 

Similarities between MCO 1.0 and MCO 2.0 are a ban on interstate travelling, no dine-in for all eateries and shortened business hours. 

Therefore, many people start questioning how the second movement control order will be effective when most of the economic sectors are still up and running? This includes factories and construction sites, whereby several major clusters and outbreaks of Covid-19 came from these workplaces. 

Will MCO2.0 work?

According to an interview on 988 radio, healthcare policy analyst Dr Lim Chee Han mentioned that the average daily confirmed cases of Covid-19 third wave is eight times higher than the highest peak of the first MCO.

If using three days last week (January 11-14) average daily confirmed cases, which is 2,770, and to drop to double digits in 60 days (which means 99 confirmed cases), daily confirmed cases will have to reduce by 5.4%.

Again, Noor Hisham also said that the Covid-19 numbers went down to less than 500 cases within these four weeks, which was also a 5.9% reduction in a day.

Taking Lim’s view into consideration, it is generally difficult to see the reduction in the first two weeks of MCO as the Covid-19 cases during this period of time are reflected in the community’s infection.

Therefore, it is not easy to flatten the curve in two weeks. According to Lim, the effect might only be seen within the third or fourth week.

In addition, with the record of 4,029 more Covid-19 infections on Saturday, another highest number of daily cases recorded, it is unlikely that the MCO is going to end in two weeks’ time.

Yet, what is more concerning, especially among the Chinese community is, can they balik kampung for Chinese New Year (CNY), if the MCO is extended by another two weeks?

As it is an annual tradition to go back home for reunion, especially in the hometown where there are elderlies who are looking forward to celebrating the new year with their children and grandchildren, this year’s CNY might be different for the Chinese communities.

As Noor Hisham cautioned, the worst is yet to come if we fail the second MCO. Given the situation that we are facing, an extension of MCO 2.0 would happen.

Even though MCO ends during CNY, we have to gauge whether it will be safe for us to travel.

Balik kampung might probably become the main factor for the surge of cases later on.

We have to live with the coronavirus, which is our new norm for the year, and be mentally prepared for it. – January 18, 2021.

* Esther Sinirisan Chong is a member of Agora Society. She was born and raised in the Land Below the Wind. Her research interest lies in education and government policies, and the history and heritage of East Malaysia.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.