SARAWAK Pakatan Harapan is overestimating itself in wanting to contest in all 82 state seats without help from its allies in the coming state elections, political scientist Jayum Jalan said.

The Universiti Putra Malaysia professor said it was “delusional” for Sarawak PH to think it can win big in the state polls, which must be held by August this year.

“They are overambitious and have overstated their strength and appeal,” the Sarawak-born political scientist told The Malaysian Insight.

His primary reasons are that Sarawak DAP, while it was part of the federal government, failed to deliver promises to supporters.

Meanwhile, PKR has lost three of its assemblymen, who defected to other parties following the change in federal government in March last year, hitting the party hard.

Despite these weaknesses, PH last week declared it would contest every seat in the coming 12th Sarawak elections.

The coalition has also agreed that PKR will contest more than half the seats, which practically ends any political co-operation with parties such as Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB).

Weaknesses

PKR is due to contest in 47 constituencies, most of which were given up by DAP and Amanah. Both of which fared miserably in 2016, when the state last went to the polls.

DAP will contest 26 seats, while Amanah will only field a candidate for nine.

Jayum said Sarawak PH does not have what it takes to win.

“They are delusional because they are still suffering from the hangover of their unlikely and unexpected win in the 2018 general election,” he said, when DAP won all six seats it contested.

However, the party performed poorly two years prior in the 2016 state polls, losing five of the 12 seats contested.

Jayum does not think DAP, seen as the strongest party in the opposition coalition, will perform any better, and may even lose more seats, because of its performance while in the federal government for 22 months. 

Meanwhile, PKR has lost its state chairman, Baru Bian (Ba’ Kelalan), former vice-chairman See Chee How (Batu Lintang) and Ali Biju (Krian).

Baru and See have since joined PSB, while Biju, currently deputy minister of energy and natural resources in the Perikatan Nasional government, remains unaffiliated to any party.

Jayum said PKR, without locals Baru and See, was a “Malayan-controlled party” and will fare badly because “it does not know local political sentiment”.

“This is clear in its arrogance to retain the little boy,” Jayum said, alluding to Baru’s successor: Julau MP Larry Sng.

“Keeping him at the helm of Sarawak PKR goes against local sentiment.”

Sng was a former Pelagus assemblyman when he was with Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), a component of the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) ruling coalition.

Pelagus and Julau are Dayak-majority seats.

Another Sarawak-born political scientist, University Malaya’s Awang Awang Azman Awang Pawi, also doubts that Sarawak PKR, with the lion’s share of state seats to contest, has what it takes to convince voters.

For one, it no longer has any influential personalities who can sway opinions.

Seats like Ba’ Kelalan and Krian will be tough unless PKR can field candidates more popular than the incumbents, Baru and Biju, Awang Azman added.

He also noted that many constituencies PKR is targeting are Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) strongholds. PBB is the lead party in the Sarawak government.

“Therefore, PKR’s chances are slim. It will be a challenge to win.”

However, Awang Azman believes PKR could win either one or two of the two Dayak-controlled state constituencies, Pakan and Meluan, which make up Sng’s Julau parliamentary seat.

“They nonetheless have to work hard for it. They must have the financial resources, a well-oiled election campaign and spaces in the local news media,” said Awang Azman.

As for Amanah, the weakest of the PH troika, Jayum said he would not be surprised if their candidates all lose their election deposits.

“Amanah is PAS in another form. Malays and Muslim Melanaus are happy to be with PBB,” he said.

“PBB already provides what Amanah offers to the Malay and Melanau communities.”

The Anwar factor

Jayum said another reason why Sarawak PH will not do well is because Sarawakians are no longer enamoured by PKR president and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

“Anwar is no longer a pull factor for the opposition. He is no longer the charismatic leader he was once.

Locals mistrust Anwar because his narrative differs, depending on whether he speaks to Malays or non-Malays, Jayum said. – January 10, 2021.