ANWAR Ibrahim’s failure to defeat Budget 2021 yesterday shows he does not have a “strong, formidable and convincing” majority to unseat Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin in Parliament, said analysts. 

They believe Anwar’s long quest for power is to win his own mandate through a general election, which could happen as early as next year once the Covid-19 situation improves. The next general election is only due in 2023.

Although the budget vote shows that Muhyiddin only has a confirmed majority of three lawmakers, it will be hard to remove him or the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government appointed in March, they said.

Tasmania University’s Asian Studies professor James Chin said Anwar and the opposition’s failure to block Muhyiddin’s maiden budget has given a lifeline to the PN government. 

“It is quite certain that Anwar does not have the numbers necessary to remove Muhyiddin. PN and Muhyiddin have come out of this crisis much stronger,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Muhyiddin will now bide his time to strengthen his majority and use all means, including giving out positions as well as money, to achieve it, said Chin. 

“I think the momentum is with the government now. So, I expect Muhyiddin to spend a lot of his time using political capital to increase his majority. His majority now is absolutely confirmed is less than three, he will try to increase this.” 

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Dr Azmil Tayeb agrees and said Muhyiddin could still afford to dish out goodies in exchange for support and the budget vote proved it.

“The victory in passing the budget shows Muhyiddin and PN still can afford to buy support from Umno to remain in power for now. However, this support is precarious and can be retracted anytime,” he said. 

Failure as opposition leader

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said Anwar fumbled when he did not initiate a division vote last month when Budget 2021 was put to the vote at the policy stage and subsequently led the opposition’s momentum into an emotional slump after that.

“If Anwar had stopped the division vote on November 26, he would have got this 111-108 and put the opposition in an upbeat mood throughout the three weeks,” he said.

The Jeffrey Sachs Centre on Sustainable Development professor added that Anwar has not performed his duty as an opposition leader and needs to buck up. If not, he should consider retirement as he does not have a concrete plan.

“If Anwar continues to sleep on his job as opposition leader because of his dream to be the next prime minister, he will be qualified for none. 

“Anwar should form a shadow cabinet in 2021 if he wants to stay in the race. If he can’t be bothered to form even a shadow cabinet, he should just retire,” Wong said. 

Analysts also believe it was time for the opposition to regroup and offer something exciting for Malaysians to rally behind as the PN government still has not won the support of the masses. 

Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Anwar had counted on Umno’s support too much and when the party pulled support away from the PKR president, he fell flat. 

“PH and the opposition leader were realistic, PN has the majority. Even though it is slim, the numbers did not change as PN MPs did not retract support from the government. 

“What became hope for PH was that Umno will break up in terms of voting but that did not happen,” he said. 

Hisommudin said the call by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Umno’s advisory council chairman Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was not heeded by parliamentarians as they continued to support PN. 

“The statement by Dr Mahathir and Tengku Razaleigh yesterday meant they were ready to give an alternative if the government loses the vote. 

“But their efforts were futile. As nothing changed and PN remained, the alternative of forming a new government or a unity government did not happen,” he said. 

Both veteran politicians made a call that they would facilitate the change in government if the PN budget gets voted down as they were concerned for the well-being of the country. 

Focus on seats

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun said the opposition needs to regroup and find an alternative method to overthrow the slim majority government, including trying to work with various parties.

“The opposition would have to wait for another more opportune day in its effort to topple the government, as they have evidently been let down by those who allegedly switched political allegiance to support them. They would have to work with others or make better offers to capture and solidify such support,” he told The Malaysian Insight. 

Oh also said Dr Mahathir had ulterior motives of not wanting Anwar to become prime minister but he was also disappointed that Muhyiddin’s government did not fall in the budget vote. 

“Dr Mahathir’s main objective was to make sure Anwar would not become the new prime minister should the government fall yesterday. As that did not happen, he must have been somewhat elated, although he appeared to be still intent upon bringing down the present government,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Chin said Muhyiddin bought some time for his administration and the opposition’s next onslaught might be after the Chinese New Year, which is in February. 

“The other prediction is that if there is going to be another attack on Muhyiddin, it will only happen after CNY. He has a bit of a breathing space here.” 

Hisommudin agrees and said the opposition needs to use this time to focus on preparations for the 15th general election, including sorting out seat negotiations. 

“The opposition needs to focus on the election. It is better for them to focus on the 15th general election by dividing seats.” – December 16, 2020.