UMNO has to decide on its direction ahead of the 15th general election as PAS seems to be leaning towards Bersatu in Perikatan Nasional (PN), said analysts and grassroots leaders.

Umno and PAS signed the Muafakat Nasional political pact in 2019 but there is unease among Umno grassroots because the Islamist party is seen to be gravitating towards Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s coalition.

PN’s supreme council recently appointed PAS Youth chief Khairil Nizam Khairuddin as the leader of its youth wing in a bid to cement ties between the ruling coalition and the Islamist party.

Khairil was also mandated by the council to boost PN’s activities at grassroots level.

The concern also comes in the wake of PN’s announcement last week of plans to establish a state liaison body to strengthen its position as the ruling coalition.

This body will be responsible for co-ordinating PN activities at state level.

Analysts told The Malaysian Insight that Umno can continue to stay in the government if it remains with PN in GE15.

However, it will not be able to wield the same kind of power it did when it led the Barisan Nasional government.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the plan to establish a state liaison body proves that PN has set its own direction, which does not include Umno.

“For now, Umno can continue to work with PN but it has to be careful so that it doesn’t fall into the PN trap.

“What is more important for Umno, is that it ensures there are no overlaps in seats with Bersatu during GE.

“Umno is likely to get fewer number of seats and isolated ones if they negotiate,” Awang Azman told The Malaysian Insight.

He reminded Umno to pay attention to the voices of its grassroots because there are still many members who are against its partnership with Bersatu.

Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan recently urged party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to determine the party’s direction ahead of GE15.

PN is serious

Ilham Centre’s Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said the formation of the liaison body shows that PN is serious about staying relevant in the current political scenario.

“They are in the process of making PN a political coalition, which will function effectively to face GE15, and to form the ruling government thereafter,” he said.

“The appointment of Mohamed Azmin Ali as elections director shows PN’s strong will to dominate. He is a politician whose manoeuvres are sly and strategic.”

Yusri explained that what happened in Sabah will be repeated if BN remains with PN in GE15.

“PN will lead the campaign and the government to victory,” he said.

“Even if they work together, PN will exert greater influence in the division of seats, the appointment of a prime minister and the cabinet.

“Now the choice is in the hands of BN on whether to continue working with PN or to find another way,” he said.

Yusri said Umno has the option to go solo if it wants to lead the government again. However, this option can be risky as the chances of winning are slimmer, especially if PAS gravitates towards PN.

Nevertheless, he said, it is possible for Umno to go down that route if it caves in to the wishes of its grassroot members.

PAS, on the other hand, is likely to choose PN compared to MN, which has not yet been registered.

“Going by the recent statements by PAS leaders and the brewing tension between PAS and Umno, I feel that PAS will be inclined towards PN after this.

“MN will continue to function for now, but will become weaker if PAS becomes busy with PN while Umno focuses on BN,” he said.

Meanwhile, Awang Azman is of the view that Umno will have to prepare for three-cornered fights in GE15.

“Umno must be firm and steadfast for itself. Supporters are tired of leaders having meetings and coming up with no concrete decisions, and being in denial over the current political situation,” he said.

“I feel three-cornered-fights (BN-PN-Pakatan) cannot be avoided as Umno will have to move in that direction.

“They will have to discuss the allocation of seats with Bersatu,” he said.

The tension between PAS and Umno became apparent after Pasir Mas MP Ahmad Fadhli Shaari likened BN’s conditional support for the Budget 2021 to the “conditions of Puteri Gunung Ledang”.

His remarks became the subject of criticism on social media and various other channels.

Muafakat still strong

Meanwhile, Umno grassroot members said MN is still going strong although there are concerns of souring ties with PN.

“We are still conducting programmes together in MN. It doesn’t seem like PAS has programmes with PN. There’s none in Klang,” Klang Umno deputy chief Iszuwan Ismail said.

“It is more obvious at federal level, where PAS seems more inclined towards Bersatu,” he said.

Iszuwan also said that grassroots members are worried that three-cornered-fights will divide the Malay votes.

“If there are three-cornered-fights, PH will have an upper hand, because we are fighting among ourselves,” he said.

As such, Iszuwan urged the Umno Supreme Council to take this into consideration when deciding on its future.

“Umno leaders should give a clearer picture on the direction forward. They have to decide on the direction now and enlighten the grassroots, so a better job can be done in the coming elections,” he said

Umno Permatang Pauh Youth chief Anuar Faisal admitted that members have been questioning the status of Umno’s working relationship with PAS and Bersatu.

“We are confident that PAS is still holding on to the MN charter signed in 2019,” he said.

“At this juncture, we don’t have any grudges against PAS and they have openly declared the formation of the state liaison body.

“There are still programmes being held between Umno-PAS that we have yet to announce,” he said.

Anuar is also hoping that Umno does not get too engrossed with the PAS and Bersatu partnership, and devotes its focus towards offering a better deal to win the hearts of voters in GE15. – November 17, 2020.