THE next sitting in the Dewan Rakyat, which will focus on Budget 2021, will be opposition leader and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim’s last chance to prove that he actually does have a parliamentary majority, said analysts.

They said that, while the Umno Supreme Council stated its intention on Monday to back Perikatan Nasional (PN), there could still be some Umno MPs who are secretly supporting Anwar.

However, the analysts told The Malaysian Insight they are still unsure if the PKR president has the formidable majority to which he laid claim on September 23.

Anwar said he had demonstrated to Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah that he had the support to become prime minister.

On November 2, Parliament will convene for the final time this year and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will need to prove with his razor thin majority that he has the support to pass Budget 2021.

Universiti Malaya socio-cultural associate Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said even though Umno has returned to Perikatan Nasional, there are influential members such as Najib Razak, Tengku Razaleigh Tengku Hamzah who have different views.

“The majority in Parliament is only two votes. Anwar won’t have the support en bloc but maybe from individuals,” Azman told The Malaysian Insight.

However, he said this is Anwar’s last chance to prove his claims.

“If Anwar does not succeed, then the people will see that he has failed and he will have to wait another two years for the 15th general election.”

On Monday, Umno called for a national reconciliation agenda with the participation of all political parties, including the opposition, to bring the political impasse to an end.

However, despite his conciliatory gesture, party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said Umno would not work with PKR or DAP.

Zahid had previously said Umno and BN will not be able to stop any of its lawmakers crossing the house to support Anwar’s bid to form a new government and become prime minister.

Zahid said that he had been informed who intended to cross over and he respected their decision.

“I have been informed many Umno and BN parliamentarians have pledged support. I respect their decision,” said Zahid.

Azman said it is difficult to determine if Anwar does have a majority.

“It is only if the Agong called the party leaders (for a meeting), or if there is a vote of no confidence in Parliament, or if Budget 2021 is rejected.

“If the Budget favours PN, then it shows that Anwar does not have the support. Then we will know where he stands.”

Azman also said a deciding factor will be if the vote of no confidence is pushed up the order.

“The speaker might not allow the vote of no confidence, so Budget 2021 will be the main decider.”

Anwar needs the numbers

International Islamic University lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar also agreed that this was Anwar’s last chance.

“If it works, he could be the next PM, if not his reputation will be tarnished because of his failure to gain the required support.”

Tunku Mohar said when Anwar made the announcement he had the support of the MPs from Umno and other parties aligned with him.

“If he fails to get the support from the MPs in Umno, then the numbers won’t add up.

“Unless somehow other MPs say that the government is no longer feasible and they want to change sides. So, this cannot be ruled out.”

Tunku Mohar said after yesterday’s outcome, he is sure Umno has demands for publicly backing PN after the weekend’s political manoeuvring.

“They are not going to blindly support Muhyiddin. They definitely want something and we don’t know what’s going to transpire in the negotiations.”

Although, Tunku Mohar said there are some MPs who are still unhappy with Muhyiddin.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said Umno clearly has used Anwar as its bargaining chip with Bersatu.

“However, Umno and Bersatu can’t resolve their enmity for long because it is a zero-sum game for two suitors after the same interests, which are the Malay voters.

“The game is not over yet” for Anwar, he said.

He said that Anwar could have a chance in the vote of no confidence with the speaker’s interpretation of the standing orders.

“However, Muhyiddin will be humiliated if he cannot ensure all MPs attend the tabling of Budget 2021.

“An absence of any six government backbenchers in the full presence of opposition backbenchers will mean a victory for the opposition during the committee stage of the budget debate.”

He said that Anwar has not stopped saying since February that he has a majority.  

“I will believe him when he can line up his majority, as former Sabah chief minister Musa Aman did” when he said he had the backing of enough assemblymen to form a new state government.

This led to the governor calling for state elections on September 26, where Parti Warisan Sabah, led by Mohd Shafie Apdal, lost the election to Gabungan Parti Sabah (GRS). – October 28, 2020.