THE Health Ministry today warned that Malaysia could see a four-digit spike in daily cases by the end of the month if the Covid-19 infectivity potential value, known as R-naught (R0), is not reduced. 

Director-general of health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the country’s current R0 value of 1.5 has to be brought down to less than 1. 

“We started with 2.2 and now it has dropped to 1.5. But, if we continue up to October 31 (on current rate), then we will get four-digit cases. 

“With public health intervention we hope to bring it back to less than 1,” he said at a press conference in Putrajaya today. 

Malaysia has recorded daily cases in the upper 800s over the last three days.

R0 is the value that represents on average the number of people that a single infected person can be expected to transmit that disease to.

Noor Hisham said previously there were many clusters in Kedah, but they managed to contain the infections as the level now is 1.5. 

“We want to keep reducing and then bring the infection rate value to below 1.”

Yesterday, he said the R0 value at the start of the third wave September 20 was at 2.2, but within four weeks it decreased to 1.5.

Noor Hisham however warned it was still possible to expect daily Covid-19 cases to increase but not abruptly.

“With the number of positive cases reported daily, we found that it was still following the projectory line of the value of R0 = 1.5. Therefore, it is still possible to expect daily Covid cases to increase but not abruptly,” he said.

He added that the infectivity value can drop to below 1 with the people cooperating to strictly comply with the standard operating procedure. – October 19, 2020.