THE Covid-19 infectivity potential value, known as R-naught (R0), has now dropped to 1.5 after four weeks, said Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.

The director-general of health said the infection value stood at 2.2 at the start of the third wave of infections on September 20.

“The R0 value at the start of the third wave September 20 was at 2.2, but within four weeks it has decreased to 1.5,” he said in a special presser in Putrajaya today.

“This means, with the efforts we have taken, we have been able to avoid a sharp increase in cases.”

Noor Hisham however warned it was still possible to expect daily Covid-19 cases to increase but not abruptly.

“With the number of positive cases reported daily, it was found that it was still following the projectory line of the value of R0 = 1.5. Therefore, it is still possible to expect daily Covid cases to increase but not abruptly,” he said.

He added that the infectivity value can drop to below 1 with the people cooperating to strictly comply with the standard operating procedure. 

“The third wave is indeed more challenging even if we are more prepared in terms of capacity and public health actions are being carried out.”

R0 is a value that represents on average the number of people that a single infected person can be expected to transmit that disease to.

Noor Hisham said at the beginning of the movement-control order (MCO) on March 18, the R0 value was at 3.5. 

He said with the implementation of the MCO, and compliance to the order and SOP by the public, the R0 was successfully lowered to 0 and on July 16, the nation recorded zero local transmissions.  

He said that Malaysia started to re-record a high R0 value on September 7, following the spike in cases in Kedah and Sabah.  

“The R0 value of these two states had a significant impact against the R0 value of the country.  

“The infection value has since been unstable and has remained above 1.0,” he said.  

While appealing to all quarters to flatten the infection rate, Noor Hisham said the conditional MCO (CMCO) is the best possible action by the government to balance the economy and at the same time allow public movement. 

“The MCO implemented previously helped to flatten the curve quickly but it also had a huge impact on the country’s economy.

To balance out the situation now, the government decided on implementing a CMCO focused on some states, allowing public movement and also the economy to remain open, subjected to compliance with SOP.

Malaysia today continued to hit record levels with 871 new Covid-19 cases reported in the past 24 hours, with 702 coming from Sabah. 

There were also seven deaths reported, bringing overall fatalities to 187. – October 18, 2020.