PAS can no longer sit in both Muafakat Nasional and Perikatan Nasional and must choose which camp, said political analysts.

The latest move by Umno to speed up MN’s registration as a coalition is a test for the Islamist party, said Ilham Centre director Hisommudin Bakar.  

“Umno wants to see how serious and committed PAS is to remain with them,” said the pollster.

“And if Umno succeeds in registering MN, it will become the main pillar in the coalition and not PN.”

Umno is beginning to feel PAS is no longer committed to MN and is shifting its interest towards PN and Bersatu, as the latter can offer more benefits, said Hisommudin.

“This is making Umno very uncomfortable.”

On Tuesday, Umno’s political bureau said it is considering withdrawing its support from PN and quitting the government.

The party said it will present new terms to PN in return for political support and that these terms have to be inked.

On top of that, Umno said it wants to speed up the registration of MN with PAS.

MN is the political cooperation started by Umno and PAS last year, when both parties were in the opposition. But following the emergence of the PN government in February, PAS appears to have shifted its allegiance.

Hisommudin said Bersatu needs PAS to balance out Umno’s dominance.

“Umno knows Bersatu has pulled PAS away and now wants the Islamist party to choose either side.”

In September, it was reported that PAS joined Bersatu, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and Sabah Progressive Party to register PN as a political coalition.

Lessons from Sabah

Umno has learnt its lesson in Sabah, said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“Although Umno had the most seats (14) as a party compared to Bersatu (11), Barisan Nasional won fewer seats compared to PN (17) and ended up losing in terms of seats and government positions.

“This has angered many of Umno’s grassroots, particularly when they felt victory was due to the party and its former leaders,” said the political science lecturer.

The Sarawakian said Umno has nothing to lose by breaking away as it means the party has more choices in the form of PKR.

Political scientist Prof Dr Wong Chin Huat said Umno’s “defeat” in Sabah was an eye-opener to its members.

“In Sabah, Umno, from the seven parliamentary and 17 state seats it had previously, was left with one seat each by the end of 2018, with Bersatu taking the lion’s share: five parliamentary and eight state seats. The fight for survival does not change, now that both are in the same camp at federal level.

“Sabah was as much a battle of PN-Bersatu versus BN-Umno as it was a battle of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) against Warisan Plus.

“Notwithstanding GRS’ victory, Umno lost badly in and after the state elections: six constituencies brought over to Bersatu by its defectors; challenged by Parti Bersatu Sabah and STAR in six constituencies, losing three eventually; and losing the chief minister’s post despite having more seats than Bersatu.”

Wong said Umno’s strength in the Sabah assembly dropped from 17/60 (28%) in May 2018, to 14/73 (19%) now.

“In contrast, Bersatu faced no internal challenges from any GRS ally. It is, therefore, natural for Umno leaders to be worried that what happened in Sabah may be repeated in the peninsula.

“Before Sabah, Umno was thinking of regaining its dominance and sidelining Bersatu.

“Now Umno is more worried about how not to be taken for a ride by Bersatu and then ambushed by PAS (which is getting closer to Bersatu) in multi-cornered fights if it takes on Bersatu,” said the electoral expert. – October 15, 2020.