UMNO can win the most seats in the 15th general elections but will not be as dominant as before, said political scientist Dr Bridget Welsh.

Welsh said though Umno was in the position to gain the most in the current political situation, that  dependent on how well it negotiated its share of seats with allies PAS and Bersatu. 

“Umno used to be controlling everything in Malaysian politics. The politics of coalition is also the end of the Umno hegemony. They are trying to win it back.

“They can win seats. They can win the most seats depending on how they work out negotiations,” she said in a Facebook live aired on Bersih 2.0’s page. 

The honorary research fellow with the University of Nottingham Malaysia’s Asia Research Institute (UoNARI) said Umno will also be dependent on coalition partners, mainly PAS to consolidate power.

“I think they also are more dependent on PAS than they have ever been. At least 20-30 seats they are going to be dependent on PAS for cooperation in order for them to win because the party is no longer strong as it was.

“We do see a situation where they are in an alliance, they can come back to government. We saw what clearly happened with Sabah,” Welsh said. 

Umno is part of the Sabah government when Gagasan Rakyat Sabah consisting of Umno, Bersatu, Star and PBS won the recently concluded state elections. 

Welsh said the parliamentary session in November will determine if there is a likelihood of an election soon. 

“I think what we need to watch is what happens when November comes. What is the count? We might see a different type of configuration emerge. An alternative arrangement that is outside of the political process.

“What we saw in the last parliamentary session was there was a very calculated political planning to assure there was cooperation to ensure there wasn’t a vote (of no confidence). 

“There are two very important things coming, that is budget and the next Malaysia plan. All of these are going to be discussed in the next session. There might be a similar arrangement,” she said. 

Umno formed an alliance with Bersatu to form Perikatan Nasional in March. However, Umno’s top leadership has insisted the alliance will only last till the 15th general election. – October 7, 2020.