WINNING many seats in Sabah is not an indicator that Bersatu will be more successful than Umno in the next general election, analysts said.

Analysts told The Malaysian Insight the victory could not be used as a yardstick for Bersatu to demand more seats in the next elections in the peninsula.

In last week’s Sabah elections, Bersatu won 11 of the 19 seats it contested compared to Umno’s 14 of 32 seats.

Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) academic Azmil Tayeb believes Umno and PAS will not yield more seats to Bersatu to contest in the coming general election.

“Muhyiddin Yassin and Bersatu can use the victory in Sabah as a validation of the achievements of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government and use it to negotiate seat allocations with PAS and Umno, but the political dynamics differ between Sabah and the peninsula, where Malay-Muslim political narrative is more relevant than in Sabah.

“Here too, Umno and PAS have their own strengths and I am confident they will not give up more seats to Bersatu, they still see Bersatu as a weak party in the peninsula,” he said.

Azmil said Bersatu is also weak in terms of grassroots support, machinery and experience.

“Most Bersatu voters during GE14 were Umno supporters and they will return to support Umno during GE15, Bersatu’s strength is only that they are in the government and can use government resources to gain support,” he added.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi also believes Bersatu has an uphill task to get more seats as it has to compete with Umno.

“Although Bersatu won many seats and played a vital role in the victory as part of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), we must remember that the peninsula and Sabah have different political conditions. In Sabah, personality politics, local factors are so strong.

“The Bersatu victory cannot be used too much to lift the party in the peninsula,” he said.

He felt that Umno will have more control over the seats in the peninsula.

“If Bersatu used their victory in Sabah as the main indicator for GE15, I think it is a big mistake.

“Umno will have more control over the seats in the peninsula because the seats are Umno’s traditional seats and their representatives jumped to Bersatu,” he said.

The GRS coalition won 38 seats, allowing it to form the state government in Sabah with a simple majority. PN won 17 seats while BN snatched 14.

Their closest rival, Warisan, won 23 seats, along with DAP (6) PKR (2) and Upko (1) making the total number of seats they won 32.

Independent candidates, meanwhile, won three seats.

However, Mazlan Ali, an analyst from the University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) is confident that Bersatu can influence seat discussions between Umno and PAS.

“It turns out that the big victory achieved by Muhyiddin Yassin in GRS will give a strong foundation for Bersatu to compete for a larger number of seats. Umno and PAS need to consider seats for Bersatu because Muhyiddin’s image is good and will contribute to the coalition in the election.

“I think, based on the victory in Sabah, Muhyiddin is able to influence the component parties in the coalition to get more seats and lead in GE15,” he said.

Mazlan added that Muhyiddin’s popularity has increased after the victory.

“His image from the last six months as prime minister, many good policies were introduced like some incentives and the loan repayment moratorium.

“By GE15, the record will be able to give a good impact to the PN coalition,” he said.

Some Umno leaders urged the party not to give up seats to Bersatu.

Among them is Umno’s advisory board chairman Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who said, the party will contest in all the seats that were originally won by the party, including in seats where its elected representatives defected to Bersatu in GE14.

Umno Supreme Council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin had previously revealed the decision from the Supreme Council that Umno and BN will contest in all the seats now held by their former members.

“We will take the seats back. That’s what the council has decided.

“So we will not give a single seat to Bersatu, that is for sure,” he said in a video that was circulated in late August. – September 28, 2020.