WHILE the Sabah polls seem to be a battle between Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Warisan Plus, the smaller parties are set to determine who wins the state polls next week, said analysts.

They told The Malaysian Insight that these smaller Sabah-based parties will play the role of a kingmaker in the state elections.

Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said the fact that both GRS and Warisan Plus are also dealing with internal conflicts may complicate matters further.

He said that on the GRS front, the tension between the two main parties – Umno and Bersatu – on their respective candidate’s for chief minister was telling.

“Umno is led by Bung Moktar Radin while Bersatu is led by Hajiji Noor. The next chief minister will be decided based on which party has more seats,” he said.

He added that both parties are at loggerheads and do not want the other to win big.

“Also, the internal fighting between Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN) is becoming more obvious.

“Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin also does not want Umno to win big as this will weaken his position.

“Umno might also be waiting for an opportunity to call a snap general election.

“At the same time, Umno does not want to see Bersatu triumph, because this will solidify Muhyiddin and Bersatu’s leadership,” Oh said.

Meanwhile, over at the Warisan Plus camp, Oh said the issue of the Pakatan Harapan-Warisan’s candidate for prime minister remains touchy.

He said if Warisan, led by Mohd Shafie Apdal, wins the state election, PH may use that as a reason to nominate him as its candidate instead of PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar may not want Warisan to win for this reason.

Sabahan analyst Esther Sinirisan Chong, who is also the member of Agora Society Malaysia, concurred with Oh.

She said there were many smaller parties running in the state polls and their support will determine who forms the next government.

For example, Parti Cinta Sabah will have better bargaining power with either side if it can win more than 18 seats this time around.

Chong said the seats won by the smaller parties were crucial in determining who forms the next government. It also depends on whether there is a change in alliance.

“If the local political parties switch their alliance, then it just goes to show that the people’s voice means little when it comes to deciding who rises to power,” she said.

BN is contesting 41 seats in the state polls, while PN is contesting 29 seats and the United Sabah Party (PBS) is competing for 22 seats.

All three are united under the GRS banner, despite the fact they are contesting against one another in 17 seats.

Other parties in the GRS pact are STAR, which will contest in five seats, and the United Sabah People’s Party, which is competing for four seats.

Warisan Plus, which comprises Warisan, PH and United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko), will collectively run for 73 seats.

PH parties DAP and PKR are each running for seven seats, while Amanah will contest only one seat.

Upko and PKR will use their own logos, while DAP and Amanah will contest under the Warisan logo. – September 20, 2020.