NEITHER Pakatan Harapan, which no longer has Bersatu, nor Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new party Pejuang, will be able to penetrate Malay-majority areas, said analysts.

Where PH had been able to make gains in Felda settlements in the 14th general election, the same success is unlikely to be repeated after recent political developments.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said although Pejuang is a lifeline for disgruntled Bersatu members, it is not strong enough to win an election in these areas.

“Pejuang is not in any political alliance, so they are only going to be able to steal protest votes.

“It is still doubtful they can win seats. At best, they can take the votes of unhappy Bersatu members,” he said.

Pejuang made its debut in the recent Slim by-election with candidate Amir Khusyairi Mohamad Tanusi, who stood as an independent as the party’s registration had yet to be approved.

Amir won just 2,115 votes, with the Perak seat going to Barisan Nasional candidate Mohd Zaidi Aziz, who won by a landslide of 15,451 votes.

Pejuang was founded by Dr Mahathir after he and five other Bersatu MPs were sacked for not supporting Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional government. Muhyiddin is also Bersatu president.

Lacklustre Malay support for Pejuang was revealed in a Merdeka Centre survey released last week, which showed most Malay voters happy that Bersatu joined Umno and PAS in Muafakat Nasional.

The pollster’s survey, conducted from July 15 to August 10, shows that Malay voters also supported Umno and PAS’s participation in the PN federal government.

Hisommudin said although PH successfully challenged BN in several Malay seats in GE14, seats with Felda voters still remained under Umno.

“In GE14, there were about 19 parliamentary seats in Felda areas that fell to PH. Now that Bersatu is no longer with PH, PH may lose these constituencies.

“Based on the Slim and Chini by-elections recently, it could be said voters who were Umno supporters but voted for PH, are now coming back to support Umno,” Hisommudin added.

Even though MN is not a formally registered coalition but a pact between parties for political cooperation, another analyst Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said it had stable support in Malay seats.

Support for MN stems from Malay backing for Umno and PAS, which remain influential in Felda areas, rather than Bersatu.

“Malays still do not fully support Bersatu. They prefer Umno or PAS.”

Support for Bersatu was when Dr Mahathir led in the campaign for GE14, at a time when Malays wanted to reject Umno and PAS, the University Malaya senior lecturer said.

However, more Malays have grown comfortable with Muhyiddin’s government, which came to power after he toppled PH by taking Bersatu out of the coalition in late February.

In Felda areas, the issues PH had campaigned on in GE14, such as settlers’ huge debts, are no longer high on people’s radars and have been replaced by new issues arising from recent political changes.

“Felda has always been an Umno stronghold, being conceived by (second prime minister) Abdul Razak Hussein. There may be a shift in sentiment among younger settlers but sympathy for Umno is still strong among Felda people.

“Right now, there aren’t major issues concerning Felda. Umno’s support is only affected when there are major issues with settlers’ interests. 

“Now the settlers think they are returning to the good old days with few problems,” Tawfik said.

Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi also predicts a return of Felda support to Umno and BN.

As for Malay backing for Pejuang and PH, he said it is still too early to tell.

“The current situation is dynamic and sentiments could change with time, and depending on location.

“Surveys and polls can serve as a general guide to understand what is happening now or what took place a few months ago, but not to draw conclusive opinions,” the UM academic said. – September 9, 2020.