IT is not certain which political party will win if a general election is held next month, based on a survey in the third quarter of this year by polling outfit Kajidata. 

The survey’s findings challenge the view among some political parties, such as Umno and PAS, that they could confidently take over Putrajaya if snap polls were called.

The survey also revealed a worrying trend of a widening ethnic divide when it comes to support for political coalitions Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. 

Kajidata’s executive director Redwan Haris said the survey revealed at least one in five voters are still uncertain who they will vote for given the fluidity of the current political landscape. 

The number of fence sitters could tilt the chances of either PH, PN or Muafakat Nasional, said Redwan. 

In the survey of 1,007 respondents conducted between July 25 and 29, Kajidata proposed two general election scenarios – one in which PN faced off against PH, and secondly if the contest was among PN, PH and MN.      

In the first scenario, PN vs PH, the former is projected to secure 42% of respondents’ votes while PH would obtain 30% of the votes. 

Uncertain voters made up 20%, 5% would not come out to vote and 3% chose “other political parties”. 

PH also received 30% of the votes in the second scenario (PH vs PN vs MN), MN obtained 24% of the votes followed by 18% by PN. 

In this case, uncertain voters also made up 20%, 5% would not come out to vote and 3% chose “other political parties”. 

“The high number of don’t-know responses reflects the uncertainty of voters regarding the highly fluid political situation,” Redwan told The Malaysian Insight. 

At the time the survey was taken, Bersatu had been split into two warring factions between president Muhyiddin Yassin and ex-chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad. 

At the same time, PN has not yet been registered as a formal coalition while Umno and PAS had not yet decided whether it would officially join it. 

PN now includes Bersatu, PAS and a handful of Sabahan parties, while MN is a pact comprising Umno, PAS and Bersatu.  

“So if a snap election happens tomorrow it’s not certain who will win outright because there is a high degree of uncertainty on the part of almost one fifth of voters.  

“Bear in mind also there are a lot of things that have happened in the past few weeks as compared to when the survey was taken (in July) that can really affect the voting pattern,” said Redwan.

For instance, at the time of the survey, controversies concerning Plantation and Commodities Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali breaking quarantine and PAS MP Nik Muhammad Zawawi Salleh calling the Christian Bible “distorted” had not occurred. 

The Sabah election had also not been called after a spate of party crossovers from Parti Warisan Sabah to PN.

Unsavoury trend emerges

The survey used a stratified random sampling model across different age groups, professions, ethnicities and across all 222 parliamentary seats, including those in Sabah and Sarawak.  

Respondents were interviewed through telephone using the voice-activated telephone interview method.

The findings include:

• Respondents who thought the country was headed in the right direction were equally divided at 39%, while 22% were unsure. 
• About 51% of respondents were satisfied with Muhyiddin’s performance as prime minister as opposed to 32% who were dissatisfied. Some 17% of respondents were unsure. 
• Despite Muhyiddin’s favourability ratings, 43% said they were dissatisfied with PN’s performance as a federal government versus 31% who were. Those uncertain were 26%. 
• An overwhelming 85% gave the PN government the thumbs up for their handling of the Covid-19 crisis but 73% said they were dissatisfied with how it managed the economy.
• When it came to handling political problems, 46% of respondents were dissatisfied with PN as compared to 35% who were satisfied.

Redwan said an emerging trend was that sentiments towards PH, PN and MN as well as the government were split along ethnic lines. 

In a choice between PN and PH, Malays, Sabahan and Sarawakian bumiputeras tended to view PN and MN more favourably as opposed to Chinese and Indians. 

For instance, 62% of Malay respondents said they would vote for PN while the same percentage of Chinese said they would choose its rival PH. 

Only 12% of Malays said they would vote PH and only 6% of Chinese said they would choose PN. 

PN also garnered 26% of votes from Sabahan bumiputeras (versus 20% for PH), 47% from Sarawakian bumiputeras (14% PH) and other communities 64% (7% for PH). 

When it came to a choice of between the Umno-led MN and Bersatu-driven PN, 39% of Malays chose MN while 25% picked PN. 

“The ethnic divide is an unsavoury thing and it has widened. It is quite worrying because we don’t want to go the route of identity politics, which is very dangerous and corrosive to Malaysia,” said Redwan. – September 4, 2020.