AFTER a week of campaigning, the signs are clear that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Mohd Zaidi Aziz, 43, will reclaim the Slim state seat in Perak left vacant by his predecessor Mohd Khusairi Abdul Talib on July 15.

The BN machinery is in full swing in the seven Felda settlements that held 57% of the total votes cast in the 2018 elections, and Umno divisions from all over the country have come to take turns to campaign there.

Apart from the few banners promoting Pejuang’s Amir Khusyairi Mohamad Tanusi in the Slim town area and the roads leading into the Felda settlements, there is hardly any sign of the new party.

Although Amir is representing Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new party in the by-election, he will be contesting as an independent while waiting for his party to be registered.

Why then is Pejuang contesting in a seat that is near impossible to win?

“Slim, like the Chini state seat, is an Umno stronghold. These party seats were literally untouched even though there was a tsunami against BN in 2018,” said Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali.

“On paper, it’s very hard to defeat Umno there,” he said.

But Mazlan, who teaches political science in UTM, said victory is not Dr Mahathir’s aim.

“This is just a platform for Pejuang to introduce the party to voters and prove that he is more influential than Muhyiddin Yassin,” said Mazlan.

While BN is sure to win the seat, there are two points that could give an indication of where Malay politics is headed, he said.

Analysts want to see how well BN will do with the help of PAS and whether Pejuang is capable of retaining the votes Pakatan Harapan won in 2018.

In 2018, Khusairi (8,327) defended the seat by 2,183 votes, defeating Mohd Amran Ibrahim (6,144) of Bersatu, who contested under the PKR ticket, and PAS’ Muhammad Zulfadli Zainal (4,103).

The Slim by-election will also show Bersatu’s influence after Dr Mahathir was sacked from the party, Mazlan said.

“It will look very bad for Muhyiddin if Pejuang manages to defend or even increase its votes here.”

Muhyiddin, who took over Bersatu after Dr Mahathir’s sacking, is looking to formalise the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.

Although Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said Umno will not join PN, Bersatu, PAS, MIC and STAR went ahead and held its first meeting last week.

Besides promoting Pejuang, Ilham centre director Hisommudin Bakar said Dr Mahathir also wants to prove that he is still a force to reckon with.

“He wants to show BN that he is capable and against Bersatu, he wants to show that he can hurt its membership,” said the pollster.

Bersatu members have been quitting the party since Dr Mahathir said he was starting Pejuang.

On a scorching Friday afternoon, a large entourage made up of former Bersatu members began their house to house or “culaan” (survey) campaign with candidate Amir Khusyairi in Felda Gunung Besout 1.

Led by Bersatu’s sacked deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir and youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, the group made its way to each house on the street behind SK Seri Besout.

At each house, the group would joke and talk with the residents about their health, their general wellbeing and local issues. This is the standard practice in culaan, where the objective is to try to gauge support for candidates in rural campaigns.

After ending the culaan with the customary plea for support, the group would leave for the next house.

All in all, the group only managed to enter two out of the dozen or so neatly arranged Felda houses. In most of the other houses, they were not welcomed, an ominous sign in Malay custom and culaan. The absence of an invitation itself, is deemed as a direct rejection.

“We are traditional BN voters,” said Ana Mat Sihin, 35, who was one of the women who allowed the group to enter her house.

“But who knows as our vote is secret,” she said with a smile.

“Just because there are more blue flags here, it doesn’t mean BN will win but Amir is going to face a tough time here.”

Later that night, Mukhriz together with Maszlee Malik, senator Yaakob Sapari and Selangor’s Templer assemblyman Mohd Sany Hamzan held a ceramah in Felda Trolak Selatan.

Although, there were only some 40 people gathered inside the ceramah tent, another 50-60 others sat on their motorcycles or at the warung to listen in.

Beside the tent, a stall was set up, selling Pejuang T-shirts. Although sales were poor with few takers, several people came to look at it from time to time.

Amir Khusyairi, 38, may not win Slim as Pejuang’s first candidate but it has allowed Dr Mahathir to achieve his objective, which is to showcase his latest struggle.

The third candidate is independent Santharasekaran Subramaniam, 44.

The Slim state seat has a total of 27,139 residents comprising Malays (74%), Indians (12%), Chinese (10%), and Orang Asli (1.4%).  

Early voting has been fixed for August 25 while polling day is on Saturday. – August 24, 2020.