FOR all Umno’s posturing and swagger, it is Muhyiddin Yassin who holds all the cards in the uneasy relationship with his new allies because he has the option of turning to his old ones in Pakatan Harapan for support, said analysts.

As ties between Bersatu and Umno appear to fray over power and control, Muhyiddin could always dissolve parliament, they said.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia senior lecturer Mazlan Ali said the prime minister could muster support from the PH bloc so as to keep his majority in the Dewan Rakyat, thus neutralising Umno’s dominance in the Perikatan Nasional government.

With PN and PH behind him, he said Bersatu would not need the faction of Umno MPs led by party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former prime minister Najib Razak.

“Muhyiddin can do it (form a new coalition government) now; he is better positioned to do that now than Dr Mahathir Mohamad was (in February). He has already formed a government, now he only needs some outside support.

“For example, if 30 PKR MPs support him along with 10 from Amanah and 10 from DAP, Muhyiddin would have an additional 50 votes, which could even add up to a two-thirds majority,” Mazlan said, adding that Parti Warisan Sabah was another potential ally for the prime minister.

This is assuming Muhyiddin is also able to convince enough Umno lawmakers to remain in his corner.

Mazlan said a grand coalition government was the best way forward if the Muhyiddin administration was to have any stability.

The lecturer said Sabah and Sarawak lawmakers were more likely to support a grand coalition government than PAS and Umno who stood to benefit more from the status quo.

The backing of East Malaysian lawmakers would give the PM a bargaining chip, he added.

“If the prime minister allows the current situation to persist, Umno will continue to pressure and bully him.”

Umno was currently split into camps led by Najib, Zahid and former youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, he said.

Not everyone in Umno would be opposed to the idea of a grand coalition and Muhyiddin has a good chance of pulling it off in the face of a divided Umno, he said.

“Even if half of Umno withdraw their support for Muhyiddin, there’s still the other half who will not.

“Such a split will further benefit Muhyiddin.”

As for Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who has established a new party, Pejuang, following his acrimonious departure from Bersatu, Mazlan said Muhyiddin could safely ignore the newcomer as it did not have enough seats in parliament to pose a threat.

Nobody wants snap polls

“Even if Dr Mahathir were to join PN now, there’s no way Muhyiddin will cede to him the prime minister’s position,” he said.

Agora Society member Kenneth Cheng said despite all that Umno had said and done, the Malay party did not wish for the government to fall

“Why is Umno not letting the Muhyiddin government fall? Because they don’t want it to either,” he said.

Umno was unlikely to force the dissolution of parliament for snap polls because it was not certain it could regain power that way, he said.

“Legally speaking, only the prime minister can dissolve the Dewan Rakyat. If Umno were to push for a vote of no-confidence, Muhyiddin’s government would fall.

“He will be in the same situation Dr Mahathir was in – trying to get 112 lawmakers to sign statutory declarations of support.”

Cheng said Umno likely had considered triggering early elections but had been deterred by the risk of Muhyiddin turning to PH for support

As such, it was highly probable that the prime minister would serve out his term, he said.

“The prime minister is the leader of the house, he can control the agenda. Even now, he is passing laws with only 111 votes, so he is also avoiding snap polls. But as long as he can control parliamentary politics, he can complete his term until 2023.

“I don’t think there will be snap elections, unless PN has already resolved seat negotiations,” he said.

Agora Society is a loose network of intellectuals, writers and activists who espouse democratic values in Malaysia. – August 22, 2020.