3 conditions are aligned for BN to fall, says Tian Chua


PKR vice-president Chua Tian Chang says multi-cornered fights would likely benefit BN. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, December 9, 2017.

THE time is ripe for a change in federal government as Malaysian voters are unhappy, the opposition is more united while the ruling Barisan Nasional is weak, PKR vice-president Chua Tian Chang said.

Barring multi-cornered fights, which would likely benefit BN, these three factors were in alignment for Pakatan Harapan to win the 14th general election, the Batu MP, better known as Tian Chua, said.

He was speaking to The Malaysian Insight about waning interest and political fatigue among voters following the last two national polls in 2008 and 2013 when hopes were high that Malaysia would have a change in government.

Despite gains by the opposition since BN lost its traditional two-thirds parliamentary majority in the 2008 elections, the coalition, which has ruled Malaysia since independence, again formed the government in 2013 even though it won only 47% of the popular vote, while the opposition obtained 52%.

While Chua was optimistic about change, he admitted that Pakatan Harapan had limitations, which included its inability to “discuss big issues” and handle “disillusionment on the ground”.

There were still issues, he said, which PH had not answered adequately, such as its stance on “balancing Islamism and secularism”.

Chua also addressed the disillusionment that some voters and activists felt about the opposition’s cooperation with former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who had jailed several PH leaders, including PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, while he was prime minister. 

Many still fault the 92-year-old for eroding the country’s institutions, for creating a culture of political patronage and corruption, and for suppressing certain freedoms.

Dr Mahathir is now chairman of PH and of Bersatu, the party he formed after quitting Umno over intractable differences with Prime Minister Najib Razak regarding his management of the country and scandals involving 1Malaysia Development Bhd.

The following are excerpts of the interview:

TMI: What is your comment about those who say that opposition’s cooperation with Dr Mahathir is just a marriage of convenience aimed at seizing power?

Chua: A marriage of convenience? Timing matters in every political decision. PH’s stand on this is very consistent.

We are talking about a two-party system, not about moral leadership. Actually, this isn’t accurate either; a two-party system means one side are angels and the other are devils.

When we talk about a two-party system, what we mean is political competition.

If there was no Anwar, then Pakatan Rakyat at that time (the former opposition pact comprising PKR, DAP and PAS) would not have been able to draw Malay voters. Similarly, if we do not have Dr Mahathir today, then there is no way we can reach out to civil servants.

The general election is, at the end of the day, a political game to see who gets the majority of votes, and those who get the majority will form the government.

Who will be our head after the general election? I don’t think Dr Mahathir can manage it alone. So, all talk about Dr Mahathir abusing power after the general election, I feel, is needless worrying.

It is normal for people to question Dr Mahathir’s intentions after he quit Umno and joined PH. It is just like Anwar, who founded PKR, but in the past, he was opposed by the Chinese and Chinese education groups.

Every politician who has left the government or ruling party has to go through this, like a rite of passage, and they need to have the wisdom and courage to face such criticism from voters. 

TMI: After the 2008 and 2013 elections, many voters are no longer as passionate about changing the government. Do you agree with this assessment?

Chua: I think it’s actually the opposite. I think many people are certain that we’ll see a change in government this coming election.

So many people have already shifted their focus elsewhere, for example, they wish to know who is going to be the prime minister and the deputy prime minister. Who is going to be the home minister? The people in East Malaysia may want to know how many minister and deputy minister posts politicians from the two states are getting.

In every country, for the government to change, three conditions must be fulfilled. One, the people are dissatisfied. Two, the opposition is united. Three, a disunited ruling party. Right now, the political situation in Malaysia fulfils these three conditions.

However, PH is also facing three main limitations. Anwar is in jail, the opposition is not ready to discuss big issues and there is disillusionment on the ground. If Anwar was not in jail, PH will be even more united; right now PKR has to fill Anwar’s shoes with collective leadership.

In talking about changing the government, people have also presented us with several issues. They wish to know our stand on these issues, but we have not prepared how to answer these questions.

(For example), on PAS’ RUU355 private member’s bill (to amend the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 to increase the severity of shariah penalties). 

How do we balance Islamisation and secularism? What is our stand? We are not prepared to answer these questions. This is our weakness.

TMI: You had said that if the opposition failed to win in GE14, then PH would have missed the chance to form the federal government. Why?

Chua: That is correct. We are very confident about changing the government, but PH still has to resolve seat allocations.

Compared with 2008 and 2013, we are even more confident that we can conquer Putrajaya. This time we are hoping to get more support from civil servants.

TMI: Do you think a ‘Malay Tsunami’ will happen?

Chua: There is indeed going to be a lot of swing votes, but I would not call it a Malay tsunami. 

(If we are thinking of) 2013, when 90% of Chinese voters supported the opposition, this (kind of tsunami) won’t repeat itself.

TMI: With PAS no longer in the opposition coalition, three-cornered fights are highly likely in some constituencies. What are your thoughts? Who will benefit the most from it? Do you agree that three-cornered fights will not affect PAS or DAP too badly but it will impact other parties?

Chua: Correct. As far as PAS and DAP are concerned, there’s no big issue. This will mostly affect Bersatu and PKR. So DAP is not too worried about it.

But three-cornered fights could possibly help BN win big. If BN wins a big majority, then the economic problems in this country will only get worse. Because of this, we cannot gamble with the future of the country in this election.

TMI: How confident is PH in this coming election?

Chua: There is a good chance of winning, or at least a having a hung parliament; or it’ll be a huge BN victory.

This is because if there are many three-cornered fights, it’ll be a huge win for BN.  We may get back to square one with BN having a two-thirds majority in Parliament. They may take the opportunity to amend the constitution and consolidate their power so that in the future, they can avoid the vulnerable position they are in right now in. – December 9, 2017.


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Comments


  • To be fair , I didn’t read what Tian Chua said in full, but from what I did read , my feeling is that the opposition is really focused to wrest power from BN in the next election , but the opposition doesn’t really have a plan for the people or the country once it does gain power.

    This feeling , which I think is shared by many other people , just makes us feeling lethargic and apathetic. Why bother taking a leave and driving to your hometown and queuing up to vote you think , just to put the opposition to power.

    I have nothing against the opposition gaining power , but what is in it for the rest of us ?

    Posted 6 years ago by Nehru Sathiamoorthy · Reply

    • We get a bunch of amateurs. I thot they knew what Mahathir did in his 22 summers.

      Posted 6 years ago by Ju bur · Reply

  • MahaThief is sitting pretty. He only wants to wipe out a strong Opposition in Parliament and save Umno through Bersatu. If BN wins, MahaThief

    Posted 6 years ago by Joe Fernandez · Reply


  • MahaThief is sitting pretty. He only wants to wipe out a strong Opposition in Parliament and save Umno through Bersatu. If BN wins GE14, MahaThief will be laughing all the way to the grave.

    Posted 6 years ago by Joe Fernandez · Reply

  • The opposition has a lot of plans. You just need to read up more instead of relying in your instinct or impressions.

    When there is open tender, there is all around savings that can be put to better use for development. When judges are fair, we no longer need to be cynical when we go to court. When judges are good, we get more enlightened judgment that will withstand scrutiny from international community and bolster our position as a global financial centre. when police is subject to IPCMC, they can no longer go around killing people in custody intentionally or accidentally. When we have an anti-corruption commission that is truly brave and independent and well equipped, they will go after politicians, ministers etc - people who receive money and compromise our country. When parliament have more select committees, it means laws will no longer be bulldozed but will be deliberated carefully so that we no longer see badly drafted laws. You may think these are all far fetched but just need to look at how Penang and Selangor with very little resources that they have collected as tax can proudly have budget surplus, doing more for the people, keeping streets clean, bringing crime rate down, create more vibrant living environment with cultural festivals, etc. With Harapan, the focus will be on development, progress, becoming more competitive, whie at the same time being compassionate towards those in need regardless of race or religion. They will focus more on sustainable development, readying ourselves for climate change etc.

    So you ask what's in for you? You only have to read. Under Harapan, it does not mean you can quite your job and live on pension. You still need to work. But when you do, there is a better match between risk and reward, between effort and reward, and you do it knowing you are contributing to the nation as a whole instead of your tax money going into corrupt pockets. You feel motivated, even inspired. You feel more patriotic.Psychologically, your well-being will improve.

    So you can harp on the opposition being imperfect, but if you hate BN, then there's only one clear choice which is to give the other guys a chance and see what happens. The question you should be asking is how bad can it there since we are already nearly scrapping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Another 5 years of BN will be like the barrel being punctured and submerging in a cesspool of more concentration of power, abuse of power by the hands of a few, greater corruption etc. Surely that cannot be what you want.

    Posted 6 years ago by Quigon Bond · Reply

  • If PH still cannot win this GE14, then it will be as sad as the day in 1942 where Japanese forces took over Malaya. That occupation last 3 and a half years. A BN occupation will be very long and the damage may be irreparable!

    Posted 6 years ago by Yong Yeok Fong · Reply