SABAH Umno needs to be clear on who will lead the party into the state elections to be called by the end of next month, said analysts.

Officially, Kinabatangan MP Bung Moktar Radin is Sabah Umno chief but former chief minister Musa Aman, Umno’s sole assemblyman, led the recent attempt to unseat the Warisan-led state government by claiming to have the support of a slim majority of representatives.

The lack of clarity as to who is in charge of Sabah Umno may pose problems for Sabah Bersatu, which wants to contest at least 45 out of the 73 seats up for grabs.

Political researcher Dr Lee Kuok Tiung said he expects Sabah Umno to be magnanimous in seat negotiations with Bersatu, as it will want to ensure straight fights with Pakatan Harapan/Warisan.

“It will try to ensure only one-to-one contests and it will be able to arrange this through negotiations,” said the Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) academic.

As part of psyching up supporters, it’s normal for leaders from different parties to declare big numbers and aspirations regarding the number of seats desired, Lee said, but ultimately, leaders will have to sit down and negotiate.

Bung Moktar, however, has been more cordial in his reaction to Sabah Bersatu chief Hajiji Mohd Noor’s statement that Bersatu is eyeing 45 seats.

Bung Moktar said the matter will have to be discussed and reiterated Sabah Umno’s plan to defend all 32 seats it contested in the previous election, as well as some of the 13 new seats to be added in the polls.

Sabah’s legislative assembly increased the number of seats from 60 to 73 through constitutional amendments and parliamentary approval last year.

Five more assemblymen can be appointed by the state governor, making the legislature a 78-seat assembly after the next polls.

Peninsula-based Umno leaders, such as vice-president Mohamed Khaled Nordin and information chief Shahril Hamdan, have poured cold water on Hajiji’s remarks about contesting 45 seats.

The sticking point is the fact that many of Sabah Bersatu’s assemblymen were originally from Umno and won their seats on a Barisan Nasional ticket before defecting to Bersatu in 2018, when it PH won Putrajaya.

How smoothly seat negotiations between Bersatu and Umno in Sabah will go depend on who takes charge of negotiations for Umno, said another political analyst, Dr Oh Ei Sun.

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) senior fellow believes Bung Moktar will be easier for Bersatu to negotiate with, while Musa, who has more experience in the state government, will be more demanding.

Internally, Sabah Umno also needs to be clear about who will take charge of the party for the elections, Oh said.

Musa appears to be in a strong position even without Sabah Umno, as support from the recent wave of assemblymen who quit PH/Warisan was for him to lead the state government, rather than for Sabah Umno or Perikatan Nasional, he said.

UMS’ Lee agreed, adding that Bersatu’s assemblymen in Sabah are now Musa supporters.

Furthermore, Sabah’s political culture emphasises the role of strongmen, patronage politics and personal power, rather than party affiliation.

Sabah’s political strongmen tend to win support by relying on their reputations, Lee said.

“They rely on their personal image and influence.”

While that may be the way politics plays out in Sabah, Lee said voters may think differently, especially as many are fed up with the constant party-hopping.

It won’t be easy for defectors to seek re-election, said Lee, but tactical arrangements could be made in the campaign to get around voter sentiment.

On what he believed incites Sabah politicians to jump parties, Lee said some lawmakers believe the state must not be governed by a federal opposition party.

“They still tend to want to cooperate with the central government.”

Musa’s recent attempt to form the state government with defectors was riddled with accusations about money politics and inducements, but Lee said such claims may just be the result of internal rivalry and dissatisfaction, or propaganda to rile up voters.

Musa’s attempt was thwarted when Warisan president and Sabah chief minister Mohd Shafie Apdal swiftly sought a dissolution of the legislative assembly.

The assembly was dissolved on July 30 and elections must be held within 60 days. – August 5, 2020.