BERSATU will lose five of its 11 state seats in Johor in the next polls as the party is less influential among Malay voters there, said a senior Umno leader.

State Umno deputy chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed said an analysis of the last general election results showed that Bersatu, which contested under the Pakatan Harapan banner, won with the support of non-Malays.

He told The Malaysian Insight that for Perikatan Nasional to win in Johor, it must allocate seats among its components to maximise Umno’s vast support among Malays in the southern state.

“The formula used in the 14th general election is no longer relevant because Bersatu won under PH, which had the support of non-Malays.

“This time, a new formula is needed… The fact is that Bersatu will need to depend on Umno’s machinery and voters.”

He said the attitude of Johor voters towards Umno has changed since the last elections as the party is no longer burdened with issues involving former president Najib Razak.

“During GE14, people did not look at Umno candidates because of the Najib issues. This time, people will look at Umno candidates and the party again.”

Bersatu has 11 seats, while Umno holds 14 in the 56-seat state assembly. PAS has one seat.

PN has a two-seat majority in the assembly, following Bersatu’s exit from PH in March.

Although they are allies in the PN pact, Umno leaders have been clamouring to reclaim their traditional seats that are now held by Bersatu, causing tension between the parties.

An analysis of Bersatu’s performance in Johor showed that the party has the potential to lose the Bukit Kepong seat, taking into account the combined votes won by Barisan Nasional and PAS in GE14.

Three seats – Endau, Sedili and Johor Lama – were won by Umno reps who defected to Bersatu three days after PH formed the government in May 2018.

Bersatu took Tenang and Bukit Permai with slim majorities.

Analysts feel that Umno has a good chance of capturing these seats.

Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Umno should get priority, as its influence in the state is bigger than Bersatu and PAS’.

“Of course, the seats should be handed over to Umno because Bersatu and PAS are not dominant in Johor. Umno has a better chance of winning.

“Bersatu seats will be reduced, and it will definitely be a struggle to demand more seats based on PN sentiments.”

No grassroots, no machinery

In GE14, Bersatu competed in Malay-majority constituencies that were also contested by Umno and PAS, making for three-cornered fights in almost all seats. The Malay vote was split, allowing Bersatu to win with non-Malay support.

Gambir, which Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin won over an MIC candidate, has 60% Malay voters.

Despite its loss there, MIC took Kahang and Tenggaroh, which have 74% and 82% Malay voters, respectively, showing Umno’s strength in these areas.

Nur Jazlan said the Malay vote will determine PN’s success in the state, adding that a standard seat distribution formula is not suitable for the pact in Johor.

Malays make up about 55% of the state electorate, Chinese (37.58%), Indians (6.25%) and others (1.24%).

Umno is only willing to hand over seats to Bersatu if its members in those areas are ready to help the latter win, said Nur Jazlan.

“Of course, there are seats in which Umno members are ready to support the Bersatu candidate, like Muhyiddin’s seat.”

The Pulai MP said Bersatu should gauge its strength in the state before demanding seats.

“Contest seats that you can win without Umno’s help. Bersatu does not even have its own machinery. They rely on Umno’s.

“They do not have enough members to be election workers, such as agents at polling and counting centres.”

He said PH can win these seats if PN makes a mistake in seat distribution.

“If the distribution of seats does not satisfy locals, there may be a three-cornered contest and the winner will be PH.

“That’s the difference in Johor. The number of non-Malay voters is also high, which will ultimately give PH the advantage. This is not a dispute between Bersatu and Umno; it is about having the right candidate for the seat.”

He said Bersatu must have winnable candidates, as previously, its representatives failed to capture the Malay vote.

“If the support from Umno is effective, it will definitely reflect on Bersatu. Bersatu must field more effective candidates who have a higher chance of winning.

“Their elected representatives did not succeed in increasing the party’s strength. In the end, Umno will have to help their candidates be accepted by the people.”

Muhyiddin factor

Awang Azman thinks Muhyiddin’s position as prime minister will help Bersatu in Johor, despite Umno’s dominance.

“Between Umno and PAS, Umno is the dominant one. Umno has a strong history in Johor.

“It is true that Bersatu’s seats will be reduced, but they will surely demand more. Even if they have weak grassroots, they will want more seats.

“And with Muhyiddin (as prime minister), they will feel that there is a chance they can get the seats that they won in GE14.”

State Bersatu secretary and Tenang assemblyman Solihan Badri said PN has yet to discuss seat allocations.

“Currently, there are no consultation sessions within the party or with other components on the distribution of seats.”  – July 25, 2020.