THE cooperation between Umno and PAS will allow both the Malay parties to win at least 13 state seats in Penang, including five currently held by Pakatan Harapan.

Electoral data from the Election Commission and results from the 14th general election show that the two parties on the Muafakat Nasional platform will make stronger headways in the state. They could almost double the number of their present seats.

All the 13 seats are in the parliamentary constituencies of Kepala Batas (Barisan Nasional), Tasek Gelugor (Bersatu), Nibong Tebal (PKR) and Permatang Pauh (PKR).

Under the Perikatan Nasional banner, the new federal ruling pact now has seven state seats which are represented by Umno, PAS and Bersatu – all in Malay-majority areas.

Three of the seven PN seats were won in the 14th general election by PAS (Penanga) and Umno (Sg Dua and Permatang Bagan).

The Penang assembly has 40 seats. The other 33 seats are held by DAP (19), PKR (12) and Amanah (2) which form Penang PH.

The other four seats are in the hands of Bersatu assemblymen, including two PKR defectors.

In the 2018 general election, PH won seven Malay-majority state seats – Pinang Tunggal, Telok Ayer Tawar, Permatang Pasir, Penanti, Sungai Bakap, Pulau Betong and Bayan Lepas.

The result analysis shows the combination of Umno and PAS in six of the seven seats will be more than the number of votes polled by PH in the last polls.

Bayan Lepas is the only constituency where the vote for PH is still unshakeable.

In Pinang Tunggal, Penang’s deputy chief minister 1 Ahmad Zakiyuddin Abdul Rahman only won by 127 votes against BN’s Roslan Saidin dan PAS’ Bukhori Ghazali.

Jointly, the two would be leading by 4,495 votes compared with Zakiyuddin.

PKR exco member Norlela Ariffin who won in Penanti would also be outnumbered by 1,847 votes by a combination of Umno and PAS votes.

In Telok Ayer Tawar , PKR’s Mustafa Kamal Ahmad would be down by 1,785 votes with the combination of Umno and PAS.

It is the same story in Sungai Bakap and Permatang Pasir as well.

Bersatu loser

The combined strength of Umno and PAS leads to questions as to where Bersatu will contest in the next general election.

Umno leaders have signalled that they want to defend their traditional seats, including those won in the last elections.

In Penang, Umno’s traditional seats are Bertam, Sg Acheh, Seberang Jaya and Telok Bahang, which have been ruled by BN for more than 30 years.

Seberang Jaya is another traditional seat since 1986, until it was wrested by PKR in 2013.

Its incumbent, Afif Bahardin ,is a two-term state rep, winning the seat under PKR. But he was sacked from the party in June and is now likely to contest under the Bersatu banner.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political analyst Azmil Tayeb said based on the Malay-Islam sentiment, Umno and PAS will be able to win more seats, especially in rural areas.

“Maybe Umno will let Afif contest under a Bersatu ticket in Sebatang Jaya as he has a lot of influence there.

“But for the other seats, I think Umno and PAS will put in their own candidates as they have a chance of winning.”

Incumbents in Bertam, Sg Acheh and Telok Bahang will lose to Umno-PAS candidates, Azmil said.

PKR, meanwhile, is confident of winning back Seberang Jaya as it has been working in the constituency for the past two elections.

Permatang Pauh youth chief Fahmi Zainol said it was the party’s influence that Afif allowed to win and not the other way around.

“In the 13th general election, Afif won because of Anwar Ibrahim’s strength of leading Pakatan Rakyat and contesting in the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat.

“He won again in the last general election because of the people’s momentum to cast aside BN,” he said.

However, Afif’s supporter Haidhar Auni Dzolkapli said it’s his personality that made him a winner and that he is looking forward to defending the seat.

“This is not Umno’s seat anymore,” he said.

Afif won for the first time in Seberang Jaya by 2,459 votes in GE13. Five years later, he doubled the majority to 7,421 votes. – July 18, 2020.