BERSATU has little choice but to join a coalition if its leaders want to secure their political future, said analysts.

The question is whether it will rejoin Umno or form a new initiative with the Barisan Nasional lynchpin and PAS, which have teamed up under the Muafakat Nasional banner.

Refusing an alliance either way will relegate Bersatu, an Umno splinter, to being just another entity on the list of Malaysian political parties with a short-lived stint in power.

Compromise between the three Malay parties is crucial if Bersatu is to formally partner with Umno and PAS.

“They will have to negotiate and compromise on seats and positions, especially for the 15th general election,” said Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst Azizuddin Sani.

“Failure to compromise will mean there is no future for Bersatu in Umno or with Muafakat Nasional.”

Won’t join Umno

In Azizuddin’s view, Bersatu is unlikely to join Umno, even though they are cut from the same cloth.

The splinter party was formed by Muhyiddin Yassin and Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 2016 to join Pakatan Harapan with the aim of toppling the BN regime. Muhyiddin withdrew Bersatu from PH in late February, leading to the collapse of the then government.

“In my opinion, Bersatu will not join Umno, because Bersatu is already a party by itself and is the party of the current prime minister,” said Azizuddin, referring to Muhyiddin.

For the moment, Bersatu’s leverage is drawn from Muhyiddin’s popularity due to his government’s effective management of the coronavirus crisis.

“Bersatu is heavily dependent on Muhyiddin’s performance. The way his government handled the Covid-19 outbreak has received a lot of praise,” said Azizuddin.

However, he said, this support may not last if Muhyiddin fails his next big challenge, which is to rebuild the economy post-pandemic.

“Muhyiddin has yet to achieve that. If he can, his popularity will rise further.”

He said Bersatu might find it easier to use its leverage from Muhyiddin’s popularity to negotiate cooperation with Umno and PAS, rather than manage the difficulties of being absorbed back into Umno.

It is also feasible for the three parties to merge into one entity, he said.

“After all, PAS is now very much like Umno.”

Ensuring survival

Universiti Malaya’s Mohamad Tawfik Yaakob has a different view, saying Bersatu will find it easier if it rejoins Umno.

For one, he said, Bersatu has no clear political direction of its own.

It would be a win-win situation for both parties and prevent disputes arising from seat negotiations if Bersatu remains on its own, but contests GE15 as Umno’s ally.

“Joining Umno will not only help strengthen Umno, but Bersatu can secure the survival of its own leaders,” said Tawfik.

“There is the possibility that Bersatu leaders will get the opportunity to contest in Umno areas.

“The only issue is that negotiation and compromise must be part of the process.”

Ilham Centre chief executive Mohd Azlan Zainal said Bersatu has no future without an alliance with another party.

“This is because Bersatu won 13 seats in GE14 with PH, led by Dr Mahathir.

“When Bersatu came out of PH, non-Malay support for the party plunged. If Bersatu continues to stand alone and contests the next elections, it will likely fail.

“To remain relevant, it must join other political parties.”

On this basis, Azlan thinks it is very unlikely that Muhyiddin will dissolve Parliament and call snap elections, despite speculation that fresh polls are on the cards.

He agrees with Tawfik that Bersatu has a better chance at ensuring its survival by joining Umno.

“Muhyiddin has the advantage as he is the prime minister.

“But, all of this remains a mystery until Parliament resumes, when we might see new political strategies revealed.”

The second Parliament meeting of the year will begin on July 13 and run until late August.

Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional government could be tested by a motion of no confidence that Dr Mahathir has filed, and also by the administration’s bid to remove the PH-appointed Dewan Rakyat speaker. – July 3, 2020.