AFTER its role in the Sheraton Move, Bersatu will likely die a slow death, whether it stays in Perikatan Nasional (PN) or returns to Pakatan Harapan (PH), said political analysts.

The crisis-ridden Malay party could have a slim chance of survival in PN because they are still in the federal government and are able to gain popular support.

Bersatu can also attempt to pin down Umno and PAS for support by formalising the alliance, although the latter two parties seem lukewarm to the idea.

Umno and PAS are in the Muafakat Nasional pact and have previously stated that their support for PN is only until the next general election.

Although there has been recent talk of Bersatu leaders and members returning to the Umno fold, their future there is also not assured, said analysts at a webinar by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Panelist Mazri Muhammad, an ex-special officer in the former Barisan Nasional administration, gave a “brutal assessment” of Bersatu’s future, saying that its current partners Umno and PAS are unlikely to compromise.

“You must ask Umno and PAS if they are going to give any seats they believe they can win in a general election to Bersatu?” said Mazri, an aide to former prime minister Najib Razak from 2009 to 2013.

“No, because they are contesting the same constituencies and appealing to the same Malay voters,” said Mazri, who was also the deputy chief of Najib’s policy and research division.

“Umno is a very well-defined old party and its ideologically sound. So is PAS. You know what you are getting with PAS and Umno. Bersatu is still in its infancy.

“Umno knows that if an election is held tomorrow they will be the biggest party along with PAS,” said Mazri, referring to the fact that Umno has no intention of sharing seats with Bersatu.

Bersatu, which used to be part of the PH coalition, had contested against both Umno and PAS in Malay-dominated seats in the 14th general election.

Bersatu was formed in 2016 by ex-Umno icons such as ex-president Dr Mahathir Mohamad and ex-deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin after they fell out with then party president Najib Razak over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal.

A majority of Bersatu’s members are ex-Umno members and the party had positioned itself as an Umno or PAS alternative in the PH alliance.

Another panellist, Prof Hamidin Abd Hamid of Universiti Malaya, said Bersatu faces a dead end, both in PN or PH, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel in the former because it is in government.

“Muhyiddin (Bersatu’s president) is still the prime minister and they have some leverage if the general election is held, and if Muhyiddin can bring PN together formally,” said Hamidin, who is also a research fellow with pollster Ilham Centre.

A formal alliance with Umno and PAS would mean that the latter two parties would be forced to reach a seat-sharing agreement with Bersatu and ensure its survival in an election.

“If he can’t do that, then it’s difficult for Bersatu to survive because they are swimming in the same pool with Umno and PAS,” said Hamidi, referring to the fact all three parties are eyeing Malay seats.

If Bersatu returns to PH, their future is also bleak given that DAP, Amanah and PKR members are still hurting from their betrayal.

In late February, Muhyiddin took Bersatu out of PH, leading to the government’s collapse. Bersatu then formed PN with Umno and PAS.

“Will PH treat them as an equal partner as before, given what has happened? So, it’s a slow dying process for them unless they can take advantage of their position now in the government.” – June 4, 2020.