BERSATU will break up if Muhyiddin Yassin fails to wrest control of the four-year-old party from Dr Mahathir Mohamad, said analysts.

The likely situation is the sacking of Dr Mahathir and his supporters but Muhyiddin might also form a new party with his men, they told The Malaysian Insight.

Muhyiddin’s faction, which includes 32 members of parliament, recently called for a supreme council meeting, reportedly to discuss Dr Mahathir’s sacking from the party.

The meeting, however, was cancelled at the 11th hour after it was discovered that if called, it would be against the party constitution.

If Muhyiddin’s team wants to sack both Dr Mahathir and his son, Mukhriz, it has to be done before the party elections – which have been suspended until June 30 because of the Covid-19 pandemic – as the party constitution gives wide power to the chairman, a post which Dr Mahathir won uncontested in March.

Dr Mahathir, who has the support of four MPs, meanwhile, has sought the party’s disciplinary board to expedite hearing against Muhyiddin for allegedly abusing his power.

Muhyiddin also faces a challenge from Mukhriz for the president’s post.

“Bersatu will split. What’s left is whether Muhyiddin will take control of Bersatu or form a new party with Mohamed Azmin Ali,” said Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal.

Muhyiddin, however, has an advantage as he is also the prime minister, said Azlan.

“We have already seen Mukhriz’s government in Kedah toppled. As such, it’s not hard to expect them to try and sack Dr Mahathir and Mukhriz before the elections,” said the pollster.

Muhyiddin is already using the Registrar of Societies to question Dr Mahathir’s chairman post.

Azlan, however, said there’s a strong possibility of Muhyiddin starting a new party with PKR defector Azmin and a group led by Hishammuddin Hussein from Umno if he cannot take full control of Bersatu.

“Umno is aware of how unstable Perikatan Nasional is and has decided to be vague about the new coalition’s future.

“Azmin also knows that he is not getting anywhere in Bersatu. Plus, he has a group of non-Malay assemblymen and supporters, for whom he has nowhere to place them.

“This is where the suggestion of forming a new party based on Muhyiddin’s faction of Bersatu, Azmin’s supporters and the Hishammuddin camp is coming from.

“This will also help Muhyiddin rationalise that his government is against corruption and will fight kleptocracy so that he can still find support in the next general election.

“Forming a new party will also pose an important question to Pakatan Harapan and PKR on whether to still partner Dr Mahathir,” said Azlan.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Dr Kamarul Zaman Yusoff said either Muhyiddin or Dr Mahathir will have to leave Bersatu.

Kamarul also expects Bersatu to sack Dr Mahathir and Mukhriz before the party elections.

This follows Bersatu disciplinary board chairman Megat Najmuddin Megat Khas’ statement that it is Dr Mahathir who did not want to adhere to the supreme council’s decision to leave PH, a sackable offence according to article 10(2)(3) of the party’s constitution.

“We are only waiting for the official announcement from Bersatu about this sacking,” said Kamarul.

Dr Mahathir is keen to remain in PH and is upset that Muhyiddin and the others in Bersatu have formed an alliance with Umno and PAS to form a new ruling pact, PN. – May 23, 2020.