WITH the global death toll now more than 300,000 and still rising, the Covid-19 pandemic is creating health, ethical, social, business, economic and political chaos.

Health crisis

Globally, as of May 20, 2020, there have been 4,801,202 confirmed cases of Covid-19, including 318,935 deaths, reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Although coronaviruses mostly affect the respiratory system, it can also damage the heart, liver, or kidneys, and affect the blood and immune system.

WHO reported most people infected with Covid-19 will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment.

However, older people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.

Once patients develop severe complications heart, renal, or multiple organ failure, this will result in death.

As hospitals are filling up with sick and dying patients, front line health care workers, often without adequate protective gear, are forced to work exhausting long hours in overcrowded and under-resourced settings.

They also have to deal with the fear of exposing themselves or their families to the virus, and are being confronted with health and mental health issues.

Ethical crisis

As Covid-19 cases and deaths surge, hospitals are confronted by severe scarcity of vital medical resources including PPE, intensive care units (ICUs) beds and ventilators bringing into tension two important forms of medical ethics: public health ethics and clinical ethics.

This results in the urgent need for health care organisations and teams to make challenging and emotionally wrought decisions on who to be offered medical treatment and who to be denied.

The global communities were aghast of the decisions of countries deciding not to offer medical help to the elderly and disabled patients, leaving many to perish.

Business disruption, impact on global unemployment and underemployment, and social unrest

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely impacted industries. Governments across the globe have responded by shutting down many businesses, which has crippled nearly all but essential businesses.

Travel restrictions imposed and the closing of borders by nations to prevent influx of tourists have resulted in the airlines, tourism and hospitality emerging as the hardest hit sectors.

Initial International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimates point to a significant rise in unemployment and underemployment in the wake of the virus.

Based on different scenarios for the impact of Covid-19 on global GDP growth, preliminary ILO estimates indicate a rise in global unemployment of between 5.3 million (“low” scenario) and 24.7 million (“high” scenario) from a base level of 188 million in 2019.

The “mid” scenario suggests an increase of 13 million (7.4 million in high-income countries).  

Disruptions in business and rising unemployment have sparked social unrest in many parts of the world. In short, the pandemic is destroying lives and livelihoods around the world.

Economic chaos and global recession inevitable

The World Economic Forum (WEF) says the measures necessary to contain the virus are bringing economies to a screeching halt.

In a BBC News report on April 3, 2020 – Coronavirus: a visual guide to the economic impact – said global shares plunged with the FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei experiencing huge falls since the outbreak began on December 31.

The Dow and the FTSE recently saw their biggest one-day declines since 1987.

A WEF report on March 6 – The economic, geopolitical and health consequences of Covid-19 – highlighted that the 2003 SARS outbreak, which infected about 8,000 people and killed 774, cost the global economy an estimated US$50 billion (RM210 billion).

Meanwhile, the 2015 MERS outbreak in South Korea infected 200 people and killed 38, but led to estimated costs of US$8.5 billion.

Already the coronavirus epidemic has had a greater economic effect than either of these predecessors. Wall Street has joined a global sell-off; the S&P 500 index of US companies fell by 11.5% the week commencing on February 24, the worst week since the 2008 crisis.

Thus, a global recession is now inevitable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the economic havoc caused by the coronavirus pandemic could spark further social unrest around the globe and urged governments to take steps to prevent the disturbances.

Changing of the political landscape

The outbreak of Covid-19 has raised significant questions of the governments’ ability to deal with a pandemic.

As a case in point, a Brookings report on March 31, 2020 – France at war with the coronavirus: politics under anaesthesia? – highlighted that the health crisis appears to be turning politics-as-usual upside down, rendering the need for democratic consultation moot, at least for now.

The political battlefield has shifted towards public health policy, crisis management, and executive leadership.

Peacetime politics have been replaced by angry debate on how to conduct the war against Covid-19, with initial concerns of what approach and duration is necessary.

Lockdown

Following from the serous impact of this pandemic, more than 100 countries have instituted lockdowns in varying degrees of restrictions.

Lifting of lockdown

After undergoing months of the lockdown, many countries, primarily due to severe business disruptions and economic crisis, have now started to lift restrictions to allow businesses to open and citizens more freedom of movement.

This has raised the concern of the public fearing that a second wave of Covid 19 would be more deadly.

Six conditions to be fulfilled before government starts lifting restrictions and lockdown

Recognising the dichotomy between mitigating medical crisis versus economic recession WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that premature attempts to restart economies could trigger secondary peaks in Covid-19 cases, and advocated that the process must be deliberate and widely co-ordinated.

WHO said any government that wants to start lifting restrictions, must first meet six conditions:

1. Disease transmission is under control

2. Health systems are able to “detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact”

3. Hot spot risks are minimised in vulnerable places, such as nursing homes

4. Schools, workplaces and other essential places have established preventive measures

5. The risk of importing new cases “can be managed”

6. Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal.

Thus political chaos is now shifted from angry debate on how to conduct the war against Covid-19, with initial concerns of what approach and duration of measures is critical to prevent or slow down the pandemic to presently strong opposition to the government lifting the lockdown prematurely.

* Sheriffah Noor Khamseah reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.