PAKATAN Harapan (PH) will win big, perhaps beyond two-third majority in the next general election (GE15) if it takes a step back now to gather its strength and reorganises itself.

After all, surveys are already showing that people’s support for PH is still at all-time high and is the preferred coalition to form government.

Forget about forming a federal government now. Think big, think long-term.

Even if Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s motion for confidence in the Parliament succeeds, it would still be a fragile and weak government, living in constant fear, never knowing when another unscrupulous frog would sell his soul.

PH could better serve our country by being an offensive opposition than, without comfortable majority, be a defensive government.

PH already gained the advantage of the three most important political affluences that will, next time around, deliver them a more secured and stable government come GE15.

First, PH now already has a collection of leaders who has learned the trade and gained the experience, insights and the acumen of running a federal government.

Keeping the ruling government to check and balance is paramount to the functioning of any democracy.

So any departure of by the so-called “backdoor” ministers from good governance and sound judgement, will become quickly apparent to them.

Secondly, the coalition members of Perikatan Nasional (PN) may be united by ethnicity but by convictions, principles and political tenets, they are so incompatible to each other, their ambiguity is obvious.

You can already see them ravenously scuffling and scrambling for lucrative positions of power right from village development councils to GLCs to even having to create positions of special envoys with ministerial ranks.

Thirdly, very soon, Bersatu, Umno and PAS, will start jostling for the very same voter base that for decades they have been hurling accusations and condemnations at each other.

Nobody can continue to bluff and get away every time. Not this time.

This infighting effect alone will cut PN down. Umno will be uprooted, PAS will be decimated and Bersatu will evaporate.

This will force them to reinvent themselves and hopefully, they will later come back to serve as an alternate coalition.

PN has already started supplying generous dose of hilarity, some as comical as Doraemon, weight in KM, “air suam”, 500 countries and tik tok-ology.

Failure to revive the economy, plundering of national resources, very high unemployment and effects of abuses of power and misappropriations will soon start kicking in. 

The Barisan Nasional (BN) government under Najib Razak had emptied our coffers. PN now will have to scrape the bottom hollow. Old habits die hard.

With Umno back in power and the kleptocrats heading ministries and GLCs, it is just a matter of time when reports of misappropriation will mushroom.

The snowball has begun with the RM30 million case in the Health Ministry. Only God knows how many more rookeries below the table has already taken its drive. The RM35 food packs priced a RM100 was yet another fiasco.

Long before this Parliament goes “sine die”, PH will already have multiple repositories overflowing with expostulations to uproot PN for good.

Without parliamentary scrutiny no one will know how the RM250 billion Covid-19 stimulus package was actually spent and how much got dissipated, if any.

It is a time bomb waiting to explode. With the economy taking a big hit, the public may be very unforgiving.

The political divide between PH and PN is split almost evenly. Hence Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin must buy as many unscrupulous zero integrity frogs he can to fortify his position and that of Perikatan Nasional.

Even so, his government will still remain very fragile, weak and vulnerable.

Those who follow my Facebook posts and talks during campaign period of GE13 and GE14, will recall that I had prophesised, that even if PH comes to power, it might not last more than three years.

The reason I gave is repeated below. But I still advocated that PH goes for it. It a process it must go through before politics in Malaysia finally matures.

One, PH leaders would be inexperienced in federal governance.

Two, they will need time to dismantle the deeply ingrained corrupted systems in place.

Three, some members of coalition will be new, so they have to learn to work as a team.

Four, they would need gigantic efforts to peel the civil service away from BN.

Five, quickly kick in meaningful reforms on the basis of which they would come to power.

I drew this parallel from the history of India in the 1970s. I was with Delhi University and somewhat involved with the student union.

It was the time when Indira Gandhi’s congress lost power for the first time since independence.

People were restless, in oblivion, asking what would happen to the country. Nobody can lead the country except the Congress party, the people reckoned.

The courts found Indira guilty of election malpractice and corruption when she was challenged for her Rae Barely seat.

She quickly imposed rule by emergency and jailed all main opposition leaders. The country protested.

Riding that public anger, two years later, Morarji Desai, a former Congress leader himself, led a new coalition named Janata party (later to become BJP) to take power and became the prime minister. He lasted only 28 months.

My prophecy turned out true. GE14 played out exactly as I had envisaged.

The situation when PH took power, was almost alike. The people never knew a government without BN. 

I relived that part of India’s history, the same circumstances. It repeated here. The resemblance was striking.

Janata party (JP) brought down the Congress government that had ruled since independence. PH too brought down BN who ruled since independence.

JP was a coalition of several fronts, two of which was a breakaway parties of mother party, Congress. PH too was a coalition including two breakaway party from its mother party, BN.

JP quickly went for reforms and anti-corruption agenda. PH had too.

JP remained weak due to continuous infighting and ideological differences, PH too.

JP fell in 28 months, PH lost power in 22 months. But what happens next is the point I am trying to make with this piece.

When it came back recomposed later, JP from the experienced it had in the short spell had become far smarter and wiser.

From then on, there was no looking back. Two major coalitions got formed and subsequent national general election was fought between them.

Powers rotated between them and both immensely contributed to India’s development making today the rising economic giant in the world stage.

Hopefully, leaders in PH too have learned their lesson and become more composed, smarter, wiser and less ravenous for positions.

Hopefully by the time PH comes to power again, perhaps GE15, it will appreciate real talents more than just rewarding party supporters to positions and power.

PH will then rule good for a long time leaving PN components to deal with their karma.

The thieves, religious bigots and kleptocrats would be washed away in the annals of history.

Hopefully, every citizen then would be treated equal and the race and religion factors would forever be buried deep. This time around, the separation of powers must work. – May 14, 2020.

* Sarajun Hoda Abdul Hassan is a social activist with Aliran.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.