THE feud between Bersatu and Umno is not new. In fact, it has been a defining feature of their relationship. Stemming from Bersatu’s clarion call to champion the Malay agenda, the only way to distinguish itself is to be more Malay than Umno.

To begin with, Bersatu came into existence on January 14, 2017. It was founded by prominent political figures from Umno, such as former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, current Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, and the incumbent Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir.

Though Bersatu might be new, its leadership is composed of primarily former Umno veterans, and it made their ambitions clear by declaring that they would take Johor in the 14th general election. 

Bersatu made no mistake by choosing to pursue Johor first, as it was the birthplace of Umno in 1946 when Onn Jaafar led the movement to oppose the British plan to form the Malayan Union. 

This move was sacrilegious to Umno, and they would not take it sitting down.

Be that as it may, May 9, 2018 changed everything, and the impregnable fortress of Umno in Johor was no more. Bersatu would go on to take eight seats and form a majority with the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition with a total of 36 seats in the Johor State Assembly, installing Osman Sapian as the new chief minister.

More notably, three state lawmakers switched their allegiance from Umno to Bersatu in November 2018, further strengthening Bersatu’s position to 11 seats while Umno faltered to 14 seats.

Despite a seemingly iron grip on the majority of the state assembly, Osman Sapian resigned as the chief minister only after 11 months on the job, on April 13, 2019, after being embroiled in controversies such as distorting his education credentials, visiting disputed waters between Malaysia and Singapore, and being absent during the pollution crisis in Sg Kim Kim.

His successor, Sahruddin Jamal did not have an easy job either, as the Johor palace had been in a public spat with Dr Mahathir.

One has to wonder, why does the Johor royal house’s disdain for the prime minister have any bearing over the chief minister since state and federal matters are distinct in every possible way?

To answer that, we have to go back to 1993 when Dr Mahathir pushed through a series of constitutional amendments which stripped the royalty of their immunity. 

At the centre of the amendments was the infamous Gomez incident, where the late Sultan Iskandar of Johor was alleged to have assaulted a hockey coach due to the former’s dissatisfaction with the latter’s criticism.

Whether the amendments were right or wrong is immaterial; what mattered the most was the seeds of displeasure towards Dr Mahathir was sown by those very amendments. The public spat was renewed when the PH government mooted the idea of ratifying the Rome Statute in March 2019 which would have seriously threatened the position of the royalty once more.

The Johor Crown Prince even challenged Dr Mahathir publicly to arrest him if the latter finds him to be committing any offence against the law.

A month later on April 10, 2019, Umno through Hasni Mohammad, then Johor opposition leader, launched its retaliation by requesting an audience with Johor ruler Sultan Ibrahim to dissolve the state assembly or for Muhyiddin to be appointed chief minister.

Needless to say, Umno did not succeed at that juncture, but we should start seeing the end of Bersatu in Johor.

Fast forward to February 23 this year, Bersatu and an independent bloc of former PKR MPs announced that they would leave PH to join Muafakat Nasional, which consists of Umno and PAS at Sheraton Hotel Petaling Jaya.

That move was later aptly named Langkah Sheraton, or the Sheraton Move. While the Sheraton Move unfolded, a new ruling coalition called Perikatan Nasional (PN), which consists of Bersatu, Umno, PAS and the previous Barisan Nasional component parties such as MCA and MIC, had sprung to life.

This led to the appointment of Muhyiddin as the 8th prime minister of Malaysia on March 1, 2020. Just 8 days later on March 9, a new cabinet was announced.

Its composition signalled the fragility in the PN alliance, with the three major parties, Bersatu, Umno and PAS each tussling for power behind the scenes.

Muhyiddin is leading in a very precarious situation despite significant political concessions that saw numerous Umno MPs being appointed into GLC leadership positions.

As far as PAS is concerned, they are currently satisfied with their current position in the government with Hadi Awang, the party’s president, being appointed as the Prime Minister’s Special Ambassador to the Middle East, but only time will tell if they want more. 

The state governments across Malaysia are not impervious to change, especially in Johor where Umno has tried on numerous occasions to oust Bersatu from leading the state.

Through the Sheraton Move, they have finally succeeded, with the chief instigator Hasni Mohammad being installed as the new chief minister of Johor on February 28. 

The fight for Johor is far from being settled. In a news report on May 1, Umno Johor deputy chief Nur Jazlan has confirmed rumours of Bersatu attempting to unseat the chief minister.

Since abandoning PH with 27 seats in total, it is unlikely for Bersatu to be able to regain Johor on its own with its measly 11 seats without any coalition partners.

It seems that a snap election is highly likely to happen. Noting Bersatu’s weakness in the federal and state level, and that the current chief minister is not from Bersatu but Umno.

It seems that the writing on the wall becomes clearer each day, with Bersatu slowly losing power, with its spiritual leader Dr Mahathir now casted to political oblivion, its inherent weakness in numbers, and its fundamental need to compete with Umno and PAS for the same voters.

One can only predict the worst possible outcome for Bersatu today when the Johor State Assembly convenes. – May 14, 2020.

* Seah Eu Hen reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.