ECONOMISTS are pressing Putrajaya for a plan to lift movement restrictions on more sectors as the daily number of new Covid-19 infections in Malaysia continues to drop.

They told The Malaysian Insight it is time to focus more on the economy but agreed that industries and sectors that require large numbers of people to be in close proximity should not be prioritised.

The economic impact of the coronavirus on the country would have been worse if not for the movement-control order (MCO) but Putrajaya cannot wait until there are zero new infections, said Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman associate professor in economics Dr Wong Chin Yoong.

Even if there are no cases in the country, a 14-day monitoring period must still be observed before the restrictions can be lifted, by which time, the economy will be in worse shape, he told The Malaysian Insight.

“If we want to wait it out, that’s just impossible and the economy won’t be able to sustain itself.

“The MCO is just like any other policy, you must weigh the good and bad together. The MCO is good from a public health standpoint because you avoid new infections, but the economy takes a hit.

“But I think the balancing point is now tipped to one side and the damage to the economy will be significantly greater than the benefits of public health,” he said.

Minister of International Trade and Industry Mohamed Azmin Ali said yesterday companies allowed to function during the first three phases of the MCO (March 18-April 28) can start operating at full capacity again.

The construction, machinery and equipment, aerospace and automotive industries are among the sectors allowed to resume fully operations.

Azmin said these companies need not reapply with the ministry to operate at full capacity.

“They are allowed to remain operational without time limit and according to the need of their respective industries,” Azmin said.

Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) senior economist Muhammed Adli Amirullah told The Malaysian Insight the government should take a gradual approach and avoid lifting all restrictions simultaneously.

“I recommend a gradual easing of restrictions after taking into account the Health Ministry’s advice, you can perhaps allow work to resume at green zones.

“We must not lift all restrictions at one go, because even when the MCO is gone, Covid-19 will still be around,” Adli said.

Malaysia has been having a run of double-digit infections since April 17, while recoveries have exceeded new cases. Cumulatively, the country reported 5,851 infections as of yesterday, and 100 deaths.

It also passed its peak on April 4 with 217 infections, which director-general of health Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah attributed to the MCO, which began on March 18. The MCO, which has been extended every two weeks, is currently in place until May 12.

On April 24, Noor Hisham said Malaysia was in the recovery phase, after having flattened the curve of Covid-19 cases.

Go by zones, prioritise sectors

While the Health Ministry should obviously be consulted on a plan to reopen gradually economic sectors, Wong and Adli said the government should craft a plan based on zones and priority sectors.

Wong said the government could lock down red zones, areas with more than 40 active cases, as the number of yellow (fewer than 40) and green zones (no cases) continue to increase.

The number of red zones, in terms of active cases, has been falling in recent days, although the Health Ministry has said a district will only be reclassified as a green zone after completing 14 days without any new infection.

Wong said industries that operate with large numbers of workers in close contact should remain closed.

Other businesses that should remain closed include those in the entertainment, sports and fitness, and large-scale construction projects.

“For businesses that are already working from home, the restrictions should remain as lifting them will bring little benefit but more risks.”

Adli said food and beverage businesses and related supply chains should be given priority as the country cannot afford food shortages while dealing with the pandemic.

Allowing businesses involved in the global supply chain to reopen will also revive the economy, said Adli.

The manufacturing sector should also be prioritised, he added, as these industries have no way of working from home.

Wong said these sectors in China have already reopened and the Putrajaya should implement similar measures.

“The benefits of this will be tremendous, production will be ramped up and people will mostly be handling machines. But of course, health precautions should remain.”

Some restrictions on the logistics sector should be lifted as it is important to the supply chains, Wong said, adding that it can also serve as a way to reopen more industries later.

Services in green zones should be restricted to those zones only to prevent Covid-19 transmission, he added.

Senior minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob previously said the government wants to maintain green zones by restricting entry into such areas to avoid transmission.

Noor Hisham also said measures to maintain green zones will be announced in due time.

The government has ramped up Covid-19 treatment capacity and “flattened the curve”, which means hospitals will be able to handle new cases should any arise due to the lifted restrictions, said Wong. – April 29, 2020.