UMNO will withdraw its support for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) ruling coalition to trigger a general election “once there are signs that the Covid-19 crisis becomes more manageable”, said DAP’s Ong Kian Ming.

In a statement, Ong, who is DAP assistant national director for political education, said pulling the rug from under Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin might not happen when the country is still dealing with the health and economic fallout caused by the pandemic.

He said the Umno leadership may strike at any time when the crisis is manageable.

Ong, who is also Bangi MP, said the once dominant Malay party knows that the more time Bersatu has, “the greater the likelihood of it succeeding in weakening Umno and building itself up in preparation for GE15”.

He said the optimal long-term strategy for Umno to regain its dominance is to ensure that the PN government does not last until the next general election.

The current parliamentary term expires in May 2023.

Ong said on the other hand, Bersatu’s leaders are aware of their fragile political position so their short-term priority is to ensure the stability of the government.

“They will offer positions in GLCs (government linked companies) and government agencies to PN backbenchers to secure their loyalty.

“They will continue to entice opposition MPs to join PN with various offers. The prime minister will continue to seek Tun Mahathir’s (former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad) blessing for the new government.”

He said even if Bersatu could increase PN’s parliamentary majority in the short term, “it cannot hope to just continue with the status quo until GE15”.

“Bersatu knows that Umno and PAS have no incentive to have a PN coalition contest in GE15.”

So Bersatu’s only option for survival is to replace Umno as the main Malay party in a ruling coalition, Ong added.

He said Bersatu has to continue putting pressure on its rivals by not dropping ongoing court cases against Umno leaders while trying to build an alternative coalition.

Ong dismissed the possibility of Bersatu merging with Umno, similar to what Semangat 46 did in the past, saying Bersatu has many MPs “who are used to the trappings of power and would do whatever it takes to retain their positions”.

He said these MPs know that in a merger with Umno, very few of them will survive the internal “purge” and be allowed to contest in GE15.

Umno’s well-laid plan to ditch Bersatu could be scuttled by Umno MPs who have not been given any cabinet positions, especially those which have outstanding court charges, Ong said.

He said such a spectre would become more likely if the court cases against the Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, its secretary-general and some members of its supreme council are not dropped before the end of the year.

There are already signs of disgruntlement among them against the government, Ong said.

“Their targets seem to be focused on Bersatu leaders so far.” – April 25, 2020.