THE Health Ministry is working to ensure a projection by JP Morgan’s research house of 6,300 infections by mid-April does not come to pass.

Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the ministry has taken note of the projection but believes it can be beaten.

“We hope that, with the healthcare system and movement control order in place, we can positively identify those infected, isolate them and treat them.

“We hope with our efforts, we can reduce that figure and not reach it. That is our target. We are trying to flatten the exponential curve,” he said today during the daily ministry health conference.

In a research note, JP Morgan said Malaysia has entered the “acceleration phase” pertaining to the increase in Covid-19 infections and that this could peak by the middle of next month.

The research house is pricing in expectations that the acceleration phase of the curve will last for only a week and a half to two weeks before moving into the accumulation stage, when the overall infection growth rate slows to between 100 and 250.

“We expect the peak infection to be by the middle of April, at approximately 6,300 cases,” it said based on its assumptions on three factors: sample population, secondary infection rate  and mortality assumptions. 

Dr Noor Hisham said at this juncture, 6,000 Covid-19 tests are carried out daily, and the figure is expected to increase to 16,000 within weeks.

“We are seeking to use the antigen test kits, which will help faster detection. There has also been discussion on mass test kits where we can get results within a day.

“The South Korean experience shows they are able to carry out 20,000 tests per day. I believe we can step up our capability.

“Whenever there is a hot spot, we want to identify the targetted group, such as the tabligh cluster. We want to cast a net over the group and ensure they don’t escape scrutiny, so we can treat them.”

He said the new test kits would be able to detect the virus even within patients who are asymptomatic.

“The first three cases (in Malaysia) – Chinese nationals who came into Johor from Singapore – were asymptomatic.” 

He said the ministry has identified some 3,000 contract nurses and medical officers to assist.

The ministry aims to have an extra 5,000 beds ready with 800 ventilators, 500 of which are dedicated solely to Covid-19 patients. There are currently 219 ventilators.

“We will receive 40 units this Friday and 200 more next week,” he said, adding that 60 ventilators will be on loan by the private sector.

A total of 19 people in the country have died from the coronavirus. A total of 172 new cases were confirmed today, with the total testing positive for Covid-19 now at 1,796 cases.

Of the new infections, 71 were linked to the tabligh cluster at the Sri Petaling Mosque.

As of today, 45 patients remain in intensive care units, with 34 requiring respiratory assistance. Sixteen patients were discharged today. – March 25, 2020.