MALAYSIA’S aggressive testing strategy – “test per million capita” for Covid-19 has far exceeded its Asean peers and even several European nations, JP Morgan said.

In a research note, it predicted the infection rate in Malaysia would peak in the middle of next month at about 6,300, and said the recent limitations on movement would help to slow the spread. It added border controls should also help subdue secondary spread of the virus.

Other strong efforts include restricted entry for foreigners, restrictions on Malaysians traveling abroad, closure of schools and colleges, bans on social gatherings and the shut down of shops except those dealing with daily essentials.

To date, Malaysia has recorded 1,624 Covid-19 cases, of which 183 have recovered, while 15 people have succumbed to the deadly virus that originated from Wuhan, China.

Expressing concerns of the pandemic entering the curve acceleration stage in Malaysia based on the observed doubling of infection cases recently, JP Morgan said the phase will likely ebb within 1.5-two weeks before the accumulation stage, when the overall infection growth rate will potentially slow to 100-250 daily.

On Malaysia’s testing capabilities, it said the country’s “test per million capita” is 482, 4x-81x higher compared with that of other Asean countries of six to 109 tests per million population, and even higher than several European countries.

Malaysia’s mortality ratio is also lower at 0.77 versus the global average of 4.4%, it said, adding that at this stage, it appears the country’s mortality risk is manageable with milder development.

“Malaysia’s current critical care beds are estimated at 1,060 (2017 data, per Registry of Intensive Care). Assuming about 10% of the infected require intensive care, the Malaysian hospital capacity looks sufficient to manage mortality risk,” it said in a report entitled “Add Malaysia to Asia Infection Curve”.

JP Morgan added the country has the capacity to absorb future hospital demand to a large degree. – Bernama, March 24, 2020.