TODAY is March 18. I am at home. I have been quarantined, required to stay at home because the government has ordered a partial lock-down, to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

On March 12, I met a group of young Pakatan Harapan (PH) MPs to explain what happened. At the end, before leaving they requested to have a picture with me.

I did not think much of it. I did not think they would be infected. They crowded around me closely, so as to be in the photo.

On March 17, my assistant Sufi showed the photo and told me one of the MPs from Sarawak had proven positive when tested for Covid-19.

I did not think much of it. I was feeling well. Indeed, many visitors remarked on how well I looked.

However, the authorities thought differently. A team of doctors and nurses had arrived at the Perdana Leadership Foundation where I was working and stopped me as I was going home for lunch.

They took a swab and told me I had to be quarantined for 14 days from date of contact.

And so here I am, home-quarantined. I had been talking to people to be serious about this pandemic. I have even done a video clip. Now I must be serious and accept being quarantined.

This virus is something that we never had before. It is highly infectious or contagious and in a number of cases it is fatal.

We have no medicine or vaccine to counter it. All we can do is to treat symptoms like fever, cough, breathlessness and if there is lung infection and you are old, you may die. I am old, 94 years old.

The threat posed by Covid-19 is due to ease of infection and possible death. To manage the infection or contagion, it is necessary to isolate people.

They must avoid being close to each other. Since we usually do not know who has the virus, everyone has to be far apart from each other.

Since men by nature are gregarious, keeping millions of people apart from each other is extremely difficult. When we work, travel, play, watch games or at the cinemas we would come together.

When we travel, almost always we would be confined in vehicles close together. To avoid this, we have to stop travelling.

This affects the tourist industry greatly. In many cases there is a 70% decline.

The airlines would suffer. The tourist industry would suffer. The hotels ground transport, restaurants would suffer.

Employees would suffer as they may be laid off. Their employers will not be earning money enough to pay them.

For Malaysia the tourist industry is the second biggest foreign exchange earner, after Petronas. The government would lose a lot of revenue.

People working in the tourist industry would lose jobs and income. This would be terrible because these people need food and drink.

In Malaysia, the petroleum industry is not big, but it’s a big contribution to government revenue.

At times Petronas paid the government as much as RM80 billion.

The budgeted price of one barrel of crude for 2020 was fixed at US$63 per barrel. It is now selling at less than 50% of the budgeted price.

Government revenue may go down to RM30 billion.

The stimulus package involved an increase in government expenditure and a decrease in taxes. Meeting this extra expenditure with decreased revenue would be challenging.

In the meantime, even a partial lock down would reduce business and profits. Again, government revenue would be affected.

For the small enterprises, the loss would be terrible. These people earn today for today.

Even if they are able to do some business, it would not be sufficient to pay for their food. The government may have to give them financial support.

What is happening in Malaysia is also happening to the rest of the world. Industries may have to stop or at least reduce production.

Exports and imports would be affected. Economies would go into recession worldwide. Even the richest countries would suffer.

Truly we all are faced with a terrible catastrophe. – March 23, 2020.

* Dr Mahathir Mohamad is chairman of Pakatan Harapan.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.