TO understand how difficult it will be for PAS to replicate its sterling performance in Selangor in the 13th general election if they go it alone, just take a drive to the Sri Serdang constituency.

In 2008, Barisan Nasional’s Mohamad Satim Diman defeated PAS’s Ahamad Idzham Ahmad by 45 votes in the almost 50,000-voter constituency.

Five years on, the tables were turned when PAS newcomer Noor Hanim Ismail won the seat by a 16,251 majority. S‎ri Serdang was a mixed seat – 46% Malay, 36% Chinese and 16% Indian.

If PAS go ahead with its plan to contest GE14 on its own, the non-Malays, who supported the party because it was part of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, will most certainly desert the Islamic party.

Sri Serdang and a slew of other seats in Malaysia’s richest state will be lost. Political analysts and pollsters say that if PAS contest GE14 under their own banner and there were more three-cornered fights, PAS would end up the biggest losers.‎

‎Dr Prof Mohammad Redzuan Othman ‎said simple arithmetic shows that PAS has more to lose if it abandons the opposition pact in Selangor in the next elections.

“On paper, with the anti-BN sentiments still strong in Selangor, an opposition minus PAS should still prevail.

“The opposition will just have a smaller majority in government. I expect DAP and PKR to keep their 14 seats but PAS will suffer a drop in half.

“And if there are three-cornered fights, the biggest benefactors will be BN with about 20 seats. But the opposition should still be able to keep Selangor,” said the Institute Darul Ehsan deputy chairman.

Redzuan said PAS will be particularly vulnerable in the mixed seats if it leaves the opposition pact.

PAS’ vulnerability

Of the 13 seats that PAS currently hold in Selangor, only two are “strong Malay-majority” seats. The rest consists of three Malay-majorities, seven “weak Malay-majorities” and one mixed seat.‎

Political scientist and Penang Institute fellow Dr Wong Chin Huat defines strong-Malay seats as constituencies with more than 66% Malay voters while the weak ones as those marginally above 50%.

“If there is a strong ethnic majority in any one seat, there is a tendency for the votes to be split down the middle between BN and the opposition there. This leaves the minority the chance to decide who will win the seat,” said Wong.

“If PAS is not with the opposition during GE14, the other races have very little reason to back them. They will be hard pressed to make up for the loss of non-Malay votes,” Wong told The Malaysian Insight.

So why would PAS persist with all this posturing about breaking ties with PKR, especially in Selangor, where its position in the state government and state excos has given the Islamic party access to resources, control over mosques and funding for its own programmes?

Because four years after its best performance in Selangor, it appears that party leaders have forgotten their track record in the old days – when they went up against the might of BN alone. – April 29, 2017.