THE Covid-19 outbreak could see a US$4 billion to US$5 billion (RM16.6 billion to RM20.7 billion) reduction in worldwide airline revenue, said the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) yesterday.

The United Nations agency reported that 70 airlines have cancelled all international flights in and out of China, and 50 others have reduced their operations.

According to preliminary estimates, this is a reduction of nearly 20 million passengers compared with expectations for the first quarter of 2020.

That figure equates to potential lost revenue of up to US$5 billion, said ICAO.

The virus has killed almost 1,400 people in China and infected tens of thousands. Overseas, nearly 600 cases have emerged in some 30 locations.

“Prior to the outbreak, airlines had planned to increase capacity by 9% on international routes to/from China for the first quarter of 2020 compared with 2019,” said ICAO in a statement.

The reality has been a reduction in foreign airline traveller capacity of 80%.

Japan looks to be the hardest hit from a drop in Chinese air travellers in the first quarter, said ICAO.

The country could lose US$1.29 billion in tourism revenue, with Thailand not far behind at US$1.15 billion.

The agency said the effects of the outbreak on the airline industry are expected to be larger than the 2002-03 SARS epidemic because flight cancellations are more widespread this time.

In addition, China’s international air traffic has doubled and its domestic air traffic increased fivefold in the last 17 years.

Chinese authorities have locked down Hubei province, the virus epicentre, and restricted movements in several cities as part of an unprecedented effort to contain the disease.

Britain, Germany, the US, Japan and others have advised against travel to China. – AFP, February 14, 2020.