THERE is little reason for Sarawak Chief Minister Abang Johari Openg to call for early state elections despite talk that polls will be held in the first quarter of 2020, said analysts.

Elections only need to be held by mid-2021, but political analysts told The Malaysian Insight the state’s ruling coalition, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), is currently secure enough and Abang Johari could do with more time to secure his legacy.

The chief minister will want to focus on this, even though the odds are in his favour based on recent survey findings by opinion research firm Merdeka Centre that found higher dissatisfaction among Sarawakians against the Pakatan Harapan (PH) federal government.

“There is no need for a snap election because it appears that GPS is set to be returned without much difficulty,” said Jayum Jawan of Universiti Putra Malaysia.

The state government’s mandate ends in June next year but talk has been rife that polls will be called in the first quarter of this year.

In the last state elections on May 7, 2016, the four parties under GPS – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) – retained power in a landslide, winning 72 of the 82 seats in the state assembly.

The parties were then part of Barisan Nasional (BN). The parties quit the coalition to form GPS in 2018 after BN lost federal power in the 14th general election.

Jawan said GPS will likely trounce PH in state polls as they are not well organised in Sarawak.

“This is not to imply that GPS cannot be beaten (at all), but to have a chance, PH needs to start organising themselves now,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Although PH is the federal government, and GPS only a state government, regional sentiments are strong over long-standing unhappiness with the slow pace of Putrajaya’s promise to restore equal status and rights to Sarawak with that of the peninsula.

GPS parties, as incumbents in the state government from the BN era, also have the advantage as they are better organised, united, experienced and familiar with local voters.

In comparison, PH has new parties Bersatu and Amanah, which were only formed before the 2018 general election.

Abang Johari’s profile

Jawan said the next state elections will also be important to the 70-year-old Abang Johari as it will be the first time he leads GPS in an election.

He will need to secure his own mandate, having filled the chief minister’s post by way of appointment after the death of Adenan Satem in January 2017.

“Abang Johari needs to step out of the shadow of his more well-liked predecessor.

“Adenan’s maverick style is something Abang Johari needs to overcome as he seeks to stamp his mark on his own leadership style,” Jawan said.

Abang Johari has been pushing to digitalise Sarawak’s economy and made it his trademark drive.

“He’ll want to bring it to the next level of development in line with the fourth industrial revolution,” Jawan added.

Universiti Malaya academic Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Abang Johari should not be in a hurry to call snap polls and should wait for the impact of the state’s RM9.9 billion budget for 2020 to be felt by voters.

“If he calls for the election in March, the impact of the budget will not be felt.

“If he calls it in April, it’s already the fasting month. In May, there is Hari Raya, and in June, there is the Gawai festival,” Awang Azman said, referring to the rice harvest festival of the Dayak people.

The state’s 2020 budget has allocated a two-month bonus for Sarawak civil servants, along with a host of initiatives involving infrastructure projects in rural areas.

Awang Azman said time is needed for the policies’ “maximum impact” to be felt by people.

Other measures the chief minister still has time to implement are reductions to the state’s electricity tariff, assessment rate, land premiums and a definitive poverty-reduction plan.

Bucking the trend

University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director James Chin has a different view, believing instead that things will become “more politically difficult for GPS” the longer Abang Johari waits.

“Right now, GPS has the advantage of Sarawak nationalism and the fact that Sarawak PKR is divided into two camps.

“Currently, PH’s signature projects like the Pan-Borneo Highway is not ready yet and is marred by construction problems. But the longer GPS stays out, it is giving Sarawak PH time to recover.”

Chin also said based on precedent, Sarawak elections are normally held one year before the state government’s mandate expires. He referred to the elections held in 1983, 1987 and 1991.

Chin said his belief that Abang Johari will call for early polls is reinforced by the spate of advertorial supplements carried by the state’s mainstream media in conjunction with the chief minister’s third year in office.

“To me, that is actually the start of the election campaign. It lays out in no uncertain terms why Abang Johari is the right man (to lead the state) as they laid out all his achievements in the past three years.” – January 18, 2020.