THE Tanjung Piai by-election was the final warning to Pakatan Harapan from its supporters that the ruling coalition must change its ways or lose the 15th general election, said analysts.

The results, which have shocked political observers and politicians alike, was a wave of protest at the administration and its uneven 18-month rule.

Tanjung Piai’s Chinese voters especially, who overwhelmingly supported PH last year, showed their anger over unresolved education issues.

Meanwhile, Malay voters were upset over failing palm oil prices and cuts in welfare aid for low income folk and fishermen, they said.

“This does not mean that the Chinese are returning to Barisan Nasional,” said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali, referring to the opposition coalition of Umno, MCA and MIC.

“Chinese voters are still distrustful of PAS and Umno, and their Malay agenda,” said Mazlan, referring to the Islamist party, which is currently in league with BN through the muafakat nasional political pact.

“However, this is the last chance for PH to change itself, its performance in government and to fulfil its election promises,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).

Pollster Ibrahim Suffian said Tanjung Piai’s voting trend does reflect a broader sentiment despite the constituency being part of Johor, a BN stronghold state.

“Despite this, the results are ominous for PH, if it is unable to remedy the cause of voter disappointment, this single setback could the turn the tide in its battle with BN.”

Extraordinary swings

PH was massacred in the by-election, losing in all of the constituency’s 27 polling districts. In GE14, it managed to win at least 11.

This contributed directly to the ruling coalition losing by a 15,000-vote majority, one of the heaviest defeats for a political party in a sitting government.

It is learnt that the Tanjung Piai results even caught BN by surprise, with its best-case scenario to win with a 7,000 to 8,000 vote margin.

In GE14, 64% of Tanjung Piai’s Chinese voters and 32% of its Malays backed PH and this allowed it to snatch the previously un-winnable constituency from BN by a narrow 524 votes.

However, in the by-election PH lost in all the Chinese majority districts such as Pekan Nenas Timur, Tengah, Barat and Selatan, which it won in GE14.

At the same time, the level of support for BN in these districts went up to between 400 and 500 votes compared to GE14.

According to think tank Political Studies for Change (KPRU), the overall swing in Chinese votes from PH to BN is estimated at between 27% and 38%, while the Malays switched over by a rate of between two and 12%.

“The overall impact of a 10% decrease in Malay support is bigger than the 20% among Chinese voters because of the larger population of Malays in the country,” KPRU said in its analysis.

“The anger towards PH is so high that it managed to sideline issues of ideology, race, religion and corruption.

“Although the Chinese do not agree with the Umno-PAS pact, they voted for BN,” said KPRU.

UTM’s Mazlan believes that another critical message PH supporters are sending is not to delay the succession plan between Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim.

“This is a referendum on the PH administration and also the head of that administration,” said Mazlan, who had surveyed voter sentiments in the parliamentary seat in the run up to the by-election.

This point is echoed by another observer Lim Hong Siang of the think tank Saudara.

Lim said Chinese frustration towards PH, which was already high due to unresolved education issues, became even worse after the Malay Dignity Congress.

The convention’s Malay nationalist rallying cry that ‘Malaysia belongs to the Malays’ was hurtful to PH supporters, especially since Dr Mahathir, along with several ministers, attended the event, Lim said.

“Some will say that this sentiment does not represent the government, but the fact is the presence of the prime minister and other ministers creates the perception that PH endorses the sentiment.”

Although PH has three and a half more years before it has to call for GE15, Mazlan argues that it is no reason for Pakatan to still take things lightly.

“The signal from Tanjung Piai is that they have to perform in the next three years, otherwise, they are going to be changed.” – November 20, 2019.